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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (3034)	5/26/1998 5:37:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Respond to of 27311

Nice post, Paul. I would tend to use far more conservative numbers for ramp-up, on the basis that this is a new technology and "it always takes longer and costs more". Time-to-market for a typical OEM could be 6 months or more, given that they may have to run two or more design cycles, plus molding time, purchasing, production ramp on the OEM end, etc. Also, it's probably the case that not all OEM's will make their own batteries, adding another uncertainty. With other PC devices, time from first silicon to product on shelves is at least six months, and can be a year or more. Lev's right that getting PO's is on the critical path ... but once the PO's are in hand, the OEMs have their own network of tasks. The OEMs will certainly stage their orders to fit their production schedule, so VNLC will not be recognizing revenue until the cells go out the door ... e.g., 3 days before the OEM wraps them in plastic. All these things push the schedule out farther than one might guess. And certainly some OEMs will move faster than others. Is there anybody here who knows the details of going from cell to product?

To: kolo55 who wrote (3034)	5/26/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: DKR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

I agree with your analysis of the laptop market. I am suggesting the possibility that this technology may open entirely new markets. And possibly create new uses. A stock's price is the present value of future earnings (ad infinitum) therefore, I am merely stating that looking solely at the laptop and cellphone market may be overly simplistic.We should look beyond years one and two because the marketplace will. Just like the personal computer opened a huge new market for computers, product improvements can transcend current market segmentation by creating new opportunities. The market for a mousetrap is X, the market for a better mouse trap might be 3X.