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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (19119)	5/26/1998 11:25:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Vitas, Much gratitude do I owe you!! :o). I wouldn't have even considered "Slammation/Summation", as you're so fond of calling it, had it not been for you. Now I will never approach a corrective phase without it. My children and grandchildren will be eternally grateful!! Now, to clear up the current vs. 9/92 comparison. As seen on the following chart, '92 didn't even scratch "0" on the summation index, and that was because it was, in Elliott terms, an "Intermediate" or 5th degree correction. decisionpoint.com This current correction that began on 4/6 (My 15 minutes of fame day <g>) is one degree nastier, a "Primary" or 6th degree correction. There have only been 4 of these types of corrections since 1982, and the Mclellan summation index perfectly marks each one with large, negative spike down readings. The first 2 of these "Primary Corrections" can be seen on that same chart, and they are 10/87 and 8/90. The other 2 can be seen on this chart, and they are the 7/96 & 4/97 corrections. decisionpoint.com Notice how each of these corrections has produced a "less negative" reading on the Summation, with the 4/97 primary correction producing only -500. I believe this is because we're approaching the end and the steepest part of the parabolic rise in the markets that began August of 1982. That's why I expect this correction to only produce a -300 to -500 reading before it ends. You'll notice from both of these charts that we had 2 other severe corrective periods that I've not mentioned. The first was the '94 nearly full year period, and the second, the '97 Aug to Nov. time frame. These were even more serious 7th degree or "Cycle" Corrections, which took longer to complete, were sector rotational in nature, and saw a large number of 30 to 40% drops in many stocks/sectors. My wave counts suggest we'll be faced with one more 6th degree correction later in the summer, then the "Big Kahuna", an 8th or 9th degree correction will begin to rear its ugly head late in the year (after we've seen 10,000+), and should last 2 to 5 or more years, and will take the indexes down at least 30 to 50%. This current correction has been great practice, and I'm sure if we all continue to work together, we can stay on the right side of things for the forseeable future. Regards, David