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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard P. Roberts who wrote (933)	5/26/1998 9:35:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1279

Been on the conf call myself - just listened to the Q&A. I didn't hear any good news. The central theme is that near term is looking bad and they will beat you-know-what-out-of-the-estimates in the first half of calendar 99. The management appears to have a lot to hide. -g- This Q, if any thing, is fudged - just my opinion. Some CC highlights: - No cancellations but there are unspecified no of pushouts (thought they did not use that word.) - They expect the recovery from Japan towards their fiscal year end. - They are shooting for 20% revenue growth in 1999. - Gross margins are expected to improve (in 1999) to mid 50's or low 60's. - Lead times for new products are about 5 to 6 months. - Inventories balooned (18 months.) They will write-off some of it (I think soon.) They have indicated that this will be consistent with the lowered earnings estimates from the analysts. In other words, they are hinting at lowering earnings numbers further. JMO. One starry eyed analyst has pointed out that Align-Rite has only 2% market share in the PCB biz. If they can generate 25 mil rev for ETEC, look at the potential. My question to him and the management is, why aren't the others stampeding to place orders? I think Align-Rite and ETEC are hoping to get a boost for their stock price with that announcement for Alta 3500 systems. I will not be surprised if this order is never shipped. IMHO. I think the bottom is no way near to this stock. Good luck, long or short! -MMV (short)