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To: waverider who wrote (22853)	5/26/1998 8:44:00 PM
From: Minos	Respond to of 95453

Greetings Threaders, I have been reading/lurking for months...very informative and entertaining thread. This constitutes my first post here. To date I've had some moderate success trading the sector and buying calls, but I'm really waiting for my long positions in UTI, NE, SLB to fly as we all know they will eventually do. I'm wondering if others out there are profiting by shorting or buying puts. We are in the midst of a painful downtrend, and while it is easily identifiable (as the Diamond Bear and others eagerly confirm) I find it difficult being on the short side of something that is so fundamentally undervalued and sound for the long-term. Anybody else out there having that same problem? TA is fine and quite useful, but I find it less effective for this sector as crude prices are the ultimate wildcard that can make support/resistance irrelevant. Murphy's Law says as soon as I short, OPEC cuts production and we're off to the races. I'll let you all know when I go to the short side. Best, -Minos

To: waverider who wrote (22853)	5/26/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

<H> You've gone from Luke Skywalker to the Dark Side in less than a month! Did Thean get you an date with his sister? (Please no sexist flames -- I happened to see the Bond flick recently and Ms. Yeoh is a very talented and beautiful actress!) Diamond, the market is going to be very nervous for awhile. No equities/commodities are safe havens now. Even Luc's precious gold took a whammy. If you're very bearish, check out the BEARX hedge fund. Today, the top fund performance at + 2.28%.

To: waverider who wrote (22853)	5/26/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: NucTrader	Respond to of 95453

Regarding FGII. Today's candlestick looked like "bearish engulfing" of yesterday's action. You may get your chance @ 29.

To: waverider who wrote (22853)	5/27/1998 12:51:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

let's hope history doesn't repeat itself... (re: march selloff price levels) Yes, some of those nasty mid march sell off prices leave some substantial downside for a few companies. My strategy is longer term buy and hold, so if I'm close to the bottom (within 10-15%) but yet 40-50% off prior highs, I'm comfortable. Being selective, if one likes the fundamentals, market niche, story & company gameplan - there are some stocks allready at 52 week lows, such as TDW, HMAR, PKD, MIND etc. showing support at these current price levels and are prudent entry points for even the bearish, where a reasonable case can be made for very limited downside from present lows. I think one of the best potential returns is to find undiscovered small/micro-cap companies that are flourishing in this tough market enviroment, (kind of a baptism under fire scenario) whose prices and PE's are being impacted by the current crude price climate; and buy them aggressively. OMNI, TCMS, BTJ fall into this catagory. Your price points on FGII seem reasonable and unfortunately very possible if we continue at these levels for another week or so. NE under $25 and MDCO under $15 I can not see, even with $13.50 - $14.75 oil through year end... I feel there will be too much ''value'' support from both institutional and individual investors - time will tell. There were some pretty ugly numbers this past March. The question then has to be, has the street accepted that the vast majority of these companies will not only be profitable, but will post 20% + revenue and earnings growth at current crude prices. I have to think the Oil Industry realizes the potential effect of deep cuts in E & P budgets; just like the lessons learned in the flat periods when there was a lack of Rig construction and infastructure investment; they are paying the price now... Irregardless of OPEC's real ability or inability to actually impact crude prices; with the right consensus from the June meeting, we may see enough of a change in the confidence level of the market that the production cuts will have an effect and along with the media analysis and commentary - we may see enough of a positive move in sentiment to halt this slide to a 10-15% correction; and with positive 2nd quarter earnings results coming in July - we may just turn the corner and start the long, long run... into fall where crude should have a decent chance of stabilizing if production cuts were adhered to and the summer peak usage depleted existing inventories to acceptable levels. Hopefully the 1-2 punch of the June OPEC news and strong July-August earnings numbers will carry this sector long enough for crude supply and demand fundamentals to catch up.