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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DTA who wrote (10892)5/27/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: limtex  Respond to of 152472
 
DTA -

I'm sure that Q has a very good market in the US and that maybe CDMA just in the US might make a useful company and I hope it does. BUT:

1. The US has more competition than anywhere else on earht and there is and will be more price pressure to drive down prices which is great for consumers but not quite so good for providers and their shareholders.

2. I have heard that GSM is being peployed in the US. I haven't been able to use my GDSM in NY or Washington but people tell me that I soon will.

3. I haven't seen anywhere seriuos that says that Q has a good enough IPR to halt the next generation GSM in Europe.

4. What other real markets does Q have. I mean the market doesn't want to even hear the word Asia any more. The very mention of Asia sends stocks reeling and at best stops them from any increase at all. When as seem like a regular monthly event now some country in Asia gets in focus because something else has gone wrong then off goes the market again with any stock that has the slightest expeosure - even buyyers of Asian goods or in Asian denominated currencies haven't benefited correspndingly.

I bet today or tomorrow someone on this thread says that the recent drop in the korean market back to where it came from after the first big drop in January is the reason why Q is heading back to its home in the forties. And as for China there have been persistent mentions about the HK $ being the next to get whacked.

Mexico , Brazil , Russia, and parts of Africa don't make up for Germany, France and Italy to name but three. Now that I think about it I don't beleive that a massive deployment of WLL in Russia will produce a whole lot of stable income. No doubt the Russian economy is getting better but very slowly and its going to have a load of bumps on the way starting next year when General Lebed runs for the presidency. The prospect of that is going to give us all nasty hangover second only the the prospect of the alternative candidate getting elected.

5. Meanwhile NOK.A nad ERCY aren't just going to wring thier hands and cry over just how old and expensive their systems are. If past history is anything to go by they are going to drive their businesses with everything they've got. And not all of it looks old to the uninformed user either and theat includes most of us out there. I was in Germany last week and everyone there has his/her "handy" and a lot of them are NOK.A and they have all sorts of goodies and features that I haven't seen in the US yet. They all do messaging and they have infra-red ports and the slightly bigger version is a sort of plam held pc type device that does interent as well and they haven't stopped they are still coming out with new and better devices and services.

As I say most of us consumers don't know the difference between CDMA and TDMA.

When I think back over the last six/nine months to the logic that I have contributed to I think I must have made the mistake of falling in love with a stock and that is fatal. The lesson has got to be that we are here to make money not to get infatuated with new technology or stocks. I posted a few time about how NOK.A and ERICY must have had their governements hepl and that in the case of NOK.A what other major corporation does Finland have. As if any of that mattered to the business of investment.

This NASDAQ is for professionals who make money in it by understanding the huge fluctuations. I don't believe its for amatuer investors.

L