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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (9230)	5/27/1998 7:25:00 AM
From: John Rowton	Respond to of 18691

As I rush to work, the warning of the day, SFAM, the maker of semi equipment, loss and layoffs, there should be another before the bell.

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (9230)	5/27/1998 8:28:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

<JTC: things seem to be headed into the ugly side.> Pancho, I'm not an economist but so far have been on the money with this Asian thing, I try to be logical and stay abreast of politics and current events. Those who forget the past are destined to repeat it. People have such short memories and let greed get in the way of logic. When Asia started to crash last year I kept recalling how every analyst who had previously said that the US will grow because of the Asian tigers, they discounted the Asian meltdown. It didn't make sense. I still contend that the 1/00 puts on US banks with Asian exposure will increase 40 fold in the next 18 months. Logically the derrivatives underwritten by these banks were done with companies in Korea and Indonesia that were sound financially 12 months ago but are now on the edge of the abyss. If one of the 2 parties in a derrivative contract refuseses to pay, the bank has to eat that loss. JPM has already been stfiffed for millions by a Korean Bank. I have a feeling after the next sell off and when the buy on the dip crowd comes running in to pick up bargains they'll finally get burned. Unless of course the Slickster and Congress decide to pump our SS money into the market to keep it afloat until 2010.