Electric utilities frantically searching for year 2000 computer bug
03:20:06, 27 May 1998
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When New Year's Day 2000 arrives, odds are the lights will go out somewhere in America.
Blame it on the bug.
The nation's electric utilities have launched a massive effort to exterminate the so-called millennium bug _ the year 2000 computer problem _ and keep the lights burning.
But with millions of personal computers, electronic devices and software codes now running the country's electrical power system, it may be impossible to investigate them all before the deadline hits, many experts say.
The threat is clear. If those computers confuse the year 2000 with 1900, they may shut down or otherwise malfunction, throwing power plants offline and severing the flow of electricity.
From fossil-fuel plants to nuclear-power units, the electronics embedded in the power controls have become a major concern for utilities _ even more of a concern than their business computer systems.
Already, some utilities are reporting plant failures during tests that simulate the year 2000 date rollover, said Pete Valdellon, year 2000 project coordinator for the Kissimmee, Fla., Utilities Board.
''If something went wrong with our business software, there's nothing potentially catastrophic that could happen like it could with our embedded systems,'' he said. ''All I can say now is that we are working diligently on all systems to ... preclude any disruption of service.''
But some power outages throughout the country appear inevitable, experts say. How widespread they will be and how long they will last, only time will tell.
Meanwhile, the U.S. power industry digs in for the biggest engineering challenge in its history.
So far, it is difficult to issue a report card.
Recent figures indicate almost one-third of the nation's utilities are lagging or have barely scratched the surface in addressing the year 2000 problem, according to a survey by the Gartner Group, a high-tech consulting firm in Stamford, Conn.
''For many of them, it is analogous to the deer caught in the headlights,'' said Roleigh Martin, a computer engineer, consultant and year 2000 specialist in Minnesota. ''This is a new problem to them, and there's not a lot of good information available about where they stand.''
During the past year or so, electric utilities _ and the general public as well _ have increased their understanding of the year 2000 problem.
Initially, it was considered a threat mostly to business systems such as mainframes and older desktop computers, which could confuse the year 2000 with 1900, triggering either a shutdown or error-riddled data.
It was caused by a software flaw created decades ago by early programmers to save memory space, time and money. As a result the computers read the year's date only in two digits.
Eventually, utilities realized the same flawed software could have been used in many of their embedded microprocessors that control power generation, transmission and distribution.
Some, however, have realized it sooner than others, said Brenda Buchan, year 2000 project coordinator for the Florida Public Service Commission. The PSC regulates power companies.
The major electric utilities _ investor-owned ones such as Florida Power Corp. and Florida Power & Light Co. _ at least seem to understand the problem and have plans under way to address it, said Buchan, who is conducting a year 2000 survey.
There are big uncertainties, however, about the municipal-owned electric utilities, as well as some of the state's small gas and telephone utilities, she said.
''When a company sends us two sentences telling us they've addressed the year 2000 by replacing their customer billing system, and they show no concern about embedded systems, then I have a concern,'' Buchan said.
In its survey, the PSC is asking companies very detailed questions: How many embedded systems, software programs and computer codes are they examining? How many must be fixed? What is their timetable for finishing? How much will it cost?
Florida utilities estimated their overall costs of fixing the problem would exceed $50 million, according to the PSC's 1997 survey.
An updated study, however, is under way, which likely will have a much higher price tag, Buchan said. This year the PSC also is questioning the municipal utilities, which were not included last year, she said.
Some municipals, such as the Orlando Utilities Commission, have no idea how much it will cost to solve the problem.
Since launching its project last September, OUC has found an estimated 250 to 400 electronic systems that could be vulnerable to the year 2000 flaw, OUC spokesman Sheridan Becht said. That number includes software programs and embedded systems.
''As you get into checking each system and subsystem and component, the overall number could run into the thousands,'' he said.
In its testing, OUC already has found a number of PCs and software programs do not have a year 2000 problem, Becht said. They do expect, however, to find problems with some older software systems OUC has used for 10 to 15 years, he said.
In checking its power plants and distribution systems, OUC is finding a mixed bag _ some have a problem, and some don't, Becht said. But some systems won't be tested until the plants are brought down for scheduled maintenance checks.
OUC plans to be finished with the whole process by June 1999, he said.
Some larger utilities, such as FP&L, started their year 2000 effort sooner. Miami-based FP&L, for example, began reviewing its information systems as early as 1995 and is about halfway through making the necessary changes, said Nancy Brock, year 2000 manager.
As with other utilities who have nuclear plants, the company is working to get certified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as year 2000-compliant.
Overall, FP&L's year 2000 price tag is $20 million and rising, said Dennis Klinger, vice president of information management. Fixing embedded systems is expected to add significantly to that figure, but no estimate is yet available.
FP&L expects to finish repairing its systems and testing the year 2000 solutions by late 1998, officials said. Some work may extend into 1999 because of equipment delivery and installation schedules.
St. Petersburg-based Florida Power Corp. projects a similar schedule, with implementation and testing of year 2000 solutions expected to be completed by third quarter 1999.
Correcting information systems alone is estimated to cost $8 million, but there is no estimate yet for doing the embedded systems work, officials said.
Florida Power's year 2000 planning began in 1995 when it began to buy and install upgraded customer service computers and other systems that did not have the software flaw, utility spokeswoman Mary Estes said.
However, the company has determined at least 11,000 mainframe software programs and 14 million lines of code will be affected by the problem, according to its report to the PSC. It has no estimate so far on how many embedded systems will be hit.
With all major utilities setting their deadlines well into 1999, some big electricity customers are not happy.
''Very few information systems projects are ever completed on time, and if at this point they're scheduling completion dates sometime next year, then I have real cause for concern,'' said Rick Ridge, year 2000 project manager for Orlando Regional Healthcare System.
''I just need to know more about where they are currently in their project, and that's what I hope to find out when we ask them.''
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(c) 1998, The Orlando Sentinel (Fla.).
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