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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John F. Dowd who wrote (56093)5/27/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Home-Run  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
This thread is so quiet now. I guess everyone is giving up
on this dog now.



To: John F. Dowd who wrote (56093)5/27/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
John: re: Why are you bullish on INTC out through 2000?

First, thanks for the detailed response. Put in a limit order for 15 contracts at 12.5, hasn't cleared yet. Will buy more if it goes down further or stays in low 70s. Will be patient. Have Lasser's book, couldn't find the answer. My hometown has no library or bookstore, just got our first paved road last year. Where on the web can I find detailed tax info re. investing? It sounds like, in order to avoid the MM playing tricks on me, I've got to use limit orders always.

Why bullish:

I buy companies that have the following characteristics:

1. they are the best in the world at what they do.
2. They have a proven track record over many years of growing EPS by at least 20% a year
3. I expect they can continue to grow by just doing what they're already doing. I don't want to bet on new management, restructuring, expanding into new products or places that are very different from what they've proven they can do.
4. Pristine balance sheet. Good businesses grow the business out of cash flow, not on borrowed money or diluting the shares.
5. franchise.
6. not doing anything on my long list of "stupid things companies do"
7. I wait, sometimes for years, until they are out of favor. I let them find a support level, and bounce up and down on it till I think the last momentum guesser has given up in despair, and the only people still holding the stock are long-term value investors. Then I take a large position.

INTC meets those criteria today.

Specifically, I think what's going on here is very simple, and has happened repeatedly. Intel is between products. Margins slip and the stock goes out of favor whenever that happens. For the last 15 years, those times have always proven to be excellent buy-in points. Everything between Pentium and Merced is just filler, noise in the signal, not important to the basic prospects of the company. We've recently seen that, at the first hint of optimism about the company, the stock zooms to almost 100. From there it will be a steady climb to 200 by July 2000.