From Current Analysis,
Igor, at least article had some decent WWW links.
Agree it's a real bummer for Fore not to be mentioned.
Got this one: currentanalysis.com
EVENT SYNOPSIS (From the vendor press release):
"April 27, 1998 -- FORE Systems Inc, today announced the "ForeRunner" ASX-4000, the first in a new family of ATM switches that can scale to over 100 Gbps. The switch, which boasts up to 40 Gbps of non-blocking switching capacity, is also the first switch in the industry with OC-48c ATM ports. Providing a scalable, reliable, high-speed foundation for building networking solutions that last, the ASX-4000 is specifically designed for the backbone of large enterprise and high-performance desktop networks, and for IP (Internet Protocol) service providers."
VENDOR IMPORTANCE RATING: Very High.
This announcement is of very high importance to FORE Systems:
ú This is a significant announcement for FORE Systems as it increases the reach of the company's product portfolio, expanding into larger networks. The company is targeting the +1,500 user networks with this product.
ú FORE Systems is coming under increased pressure from the Ethernet players as Gigabit Ethernet becomes a viable alternative to ATM. The increased capacity of this new product will enable FORE to compete against the Gigabit Ethernet players at the high end of Gigabit Ethernet's range.
INDUSTRY IMPORTANCE RATING: High.
This announcement is of high importance to the industry:
ú This product is targeted at the very high-end and will therefore be competing against the Gigabit players. Although Gigabit Ethernet is drawing the crowds, ATM switches provide a solid, durable infrastructure and FORE's product will complicate the high-end market for the Gig players.
ú This product will compete very well against other ATM products. FORE Systems is well know for its ATM products and has a number of agreements/partnerships that will aid the sales and distribution of this product.
ú The FORERunner ASX-4000 offers concatenated channels (i.e. one big channel rather than a number of smaller channels) and this is a significant enhancement over the standard ATM OC options.
CURRENT PERSPECTIVE RATING: Positive.
We are positive on the launch of FORE's new FORERunner ASX-4000 as this product complements the company's current product range. This new switch will compete against the high-end gigabit boxes in the high end, as well as against other ATM solutions. The ATM switch offers up to 40 Gbps of non-blocking switching capacity with 64 ports of OC-12c or 16 ports of OC-48c. FORE intends to launch a mixed card, offering 4 ports of OC-12c and 16 ports of OC-3c. It is worthy to note that these are the "c" type speeds -i.e., concatenated channels.
Typically, OC-12, for example, consists of 12 channels of 51.84 Mbps. However, with OC-12c, the entire capacity of 622 Mbps can be used as one large channel.
The product offers load balancing, failed node detection and a plethora of other features, as one would expect of a high capacity device such as this. More significantly, the ASX-4000 offers three possible operational modes that provide varying levels of redundancy. Option number one is the standard 40 Gigabit, non-redundant switching fabric. In option two, the 40 Gigabit switching fabric can be split in half, providing a 20 Gigabit, fully redundant capacity.
Option three is a combination of the above solutions: 20 Gigabit is non-redundant, while the second 20 Gigabit capacity is split in two, providing 10 Gigabit of redundant capacity.
Typically, redundancy is an all or nothing issue, and the ability to gain maximum capacity by choosing to have only partial redundancy should prove to be of great interest to the user base.
The ASX-4000 is available at four different capacities:
ASX-4000/10Gbps: $54,995
ASX-4000/20Gbps: $84,995
ASX-4000/30Gbps: $114,995
ASX-4000/40Gbps: $144,995
FORE is targeting this new ATM switch at networks with 1500 users and above (a significantly lower capacity than Cisco's target market for its new 8500 router). The ASX-4000 fits above FORE's ASX-1000, at the high end of the campus network.
FORE's biggest challenge is still the misperception surrounding the applicability of ATM in the LAN. ATM suffered from over hype in the earlier half of the decade. By 1995, the user base was ready for an ATM utopia that never emerged. Technical difficulties, such as the problems surrounding the specification and implementation of LANE (LAN Emulation) delayed ATM almost into obscurity within the LAN and the utopian dream faded. However, ATM is an excellent backbone architecture, both for inside the LAN and out in the WAN. While we would not necessarily recommend its use down to the desktop (there are exceptions to this observation such as animation houses), ATM is certainly a very sound backbone solution.
The advent of Gigabit Ethernet has further complicated the market for ATM vendors, as it provides an alternative solution to ATM. Gigabit Ethernet is the darling of the press, and users feel that they should all be moving in this direction - regardless of whether Gigabit Ethernet is actually the best solution. Furthermore, the user base understands the fundamentals of Gigabit Ethernet as it is based on a technology that they have been using for years. Many users remain cautious of the move to ATM, a solution that smacks of wide-area overkill within the LAN. Because of this, FORE's target market will remain the larger enterprises - such as large Petroleum companies - that recognize the benefits of ATM. To help combat this problem, FORE is expected to add a Gigabit Ethernet blade to its new campus switch soon after its launch.
FORE Systems has a number of partnerships that should help the company to sell and distribute this new product. The most notable of these partnerships include:
ú Nortel and FORE have partnered to deliver end-to-end ATM solutions. The agreement includes technology transfer, joint development and joint sales and marketing.
ú Cabletron and FORE Systems have an agreement under which Cabletron has the worldwide right to distribute FORE's product line (although we are not convinced that significant volumes are likely to move through this channel).
ú FORE Systems and Sprint have a multi-year agreement through which Sprint will market, service and support the FORE systems ATM switch product line as an integral part of its ATM service offering.
TOP COMPETITIVE POSITIVES:
We believe that this announcement has a number of positives for the company:
ú The redundancy options available with this product - i.e., the ability to make part or all of the switching capacity redundant - are excellent and should prove to be of great interest in the customer base.
ú This product offers a very tempting alternative to the current trend of Gigabit Ethernet switches (especially when FORE provides its Gigabit Ethernet blade).
ú The ASX-4000 offers load balancing, self-healing and other "intelligent" functionality via the use of FORE's "intelligent infrastructure" - FOREThought. This software also provides traffic prioritization, delay sensitive traffic (such as constant bit rate or variable bit rate), and can cross the network without being affected by other traffic which can run over available bit rate.
ú FORE has a number of significant partnerships that will help with the distribution of this product.
ú The use of concatenated channels is a significant improvement over the more usual 51.84 Mbps OC channels.
TOP COMPETITIVE CONCERNS:
Although we are positive on this announcement, we do have concerns:
ú FORE Systems is now having to compete against the Gigabit Ethernet players. Gigabit Ethernet is a tempting proposal for many users as it builds on their current knowledge (everyone uses or has used Ethernet) rather than introducing a new technology into the network.
ú There is a misperception within the industry that ATM in the LAN has failed to materialize, and that it is really just useful in the wide area. This issue is helped along by the fact that ATM is a compromise solution between the voice and data vendors (53 byte cells are not the ideal length for data.or for voice). The "ATM is a compromise" argument can be countered by talking about the flexibility of ATM - such as the fact that ATM was designed for multimedia traffic.
TOP VENDOR SUPPORT ACTIONS:
FORE Systems should consider the following actions in support of this announcement:
ú FORE Systems needs to show how this will tie in to its Ethernet product line.
ú FORE Systems needs to highlight the benefits of an ATM backbone, focusing on quality of service issues and scalability issues. Emphasize the benefits of FOREThought - the company's intelligent infrastructure.
ú The company must make the clear distinction between ATM to the desktop (which has failed to take off) and ATM in the backbone, which is still a very viable LAN solution.
ú FORE needs to "define" the market for Gigabit Ethernet, showing that this is a good solution (FORE does intend to launch a Gigabit blade for the ASX-4000 at some point) but that it is suitable for the medium-sized networks (250 to 1000 users) not the l000 user and above networks or situations where QoS is important.
ú FORE should take pains to highlight the unique redundancy options available with the ASX-4000.
TOP COMPETITOR ACTIONS:
We expect FORE's competitors to consider the following actions:
ú We expect that the Gigabit Ethernet players will emphasize the perceived benefits of remaining with "pure" Ethernet, rather than introducing another technology into the network.
These benefits include the fact that ATM is a compromise solution between voice and data - and is therefore not ideally suited to either - whereas Ethernet is a data-based solution first and foremost, and the fact that Ethernet is the most commonly used solution lower down in the LAN workgroups.
ú Gigabit Ethernet proponents may highlight the differential between the time it took to bring Gigabit Ethernet to a formal standard and the problems relating to ATM's
standardization. In particular, the Gigabit players should highlight the problems relating to the LANE specification as an indication that ATM is a WAN technology first and foremost - with all of the excess baggage that comes with the WAN.
ú The larger ATM players, such as Cisco, can demonstrate a more rounded portfolio of both ATM and Ethernet-based solutions. As such, they can argue that they will sell the best solution for the network in question, rather than just providing a solution based on the one technology they specialize in (the "un-biased" argument).
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