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Technology Stocks : WHAT IS BEYOND 2000 FOR Y2K COMPANIES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul e thomas who wrote (3)	5/27/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29

Hi Paul, Nanda, I agree that it is important to talk about the post Y2k possibilities of current Y2k companies. However, the implicit assumption made by many investors that by and large Yk remediation will be over and done with, is wrong IMO. From all articles that I have read so far, it is very clear that remediation work will go on for (at least) another 1-2 years after 1/1/2000. Increasingly, only the most mission critical systems will be remediated. So less critical systems that still have importance will be fixed or replaced after the big event. Also, remediation will be done increasingly using all kinds of temporary stop-gaps. These stop gaps will have to handled after 1/1/2000. Lots of larger data losses and data corruption will occur. It takes a lot of programming effort to fix those problems. These problems will occur before, at 1/1/200, but also up till 2001. Cory Hamasaki wrote some very interesting articles about this issue in c.s.y2k. Remediation in countries less advanced than the US will also absorb many programmers, and the offerings of y2k companies. Replacing legacy systems will become less and less of an option the coming months (because of the time left until event horizons will become too short). This will also be true even after 1/1/2000 for 'less-critical' systems. Awareness and remediation action on embedded systems is typically running 1 - 2 years behind IT remediation. Therefore the peak of the work will be definitely after 1/1/2000. Just take ships as an example. Many ships will simply remain in the harbor for many months after 1/1/2000 until the systems are remediated (typically until owners offer enough money for the then very expensive engineers). More arguments can be thought of. Any ideas on your part? TIA! (b.t.w. great idea to start this thread!) Regards, John

To: paul e thomas who wrote (3)	5/27/1998 2:33:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 29

Paul, This is an example of my previous post. 'Railtrack does not envisage that all mission-critical work will be completed until the last day of 1999.' Work will simply go on in 2000, ... in 2001, .... 2002, ... Investment models limiting the bulk of the work for y2k companies to the coming 6-7 quarters simply do not cut it IMO. John _____ '.... An internal memo leaked to Computer Weekly shows that Railtrack executives have set up a "star chamber" meeting to shrink IT development and deal with "the impact of the year 2000 programme and the resource limitations". The document, written by a Railtrack director Brian Mellitt, highlights 44 projects in which, in each case, there are plans to "prepare and execute project closure" and then "reallocate resources". The problems highlight the growing financial and time pressures faced by businesses as deadlines for testing millennium systems approach. Critically, the memo reveals the state of Railtrack's year 2000 preparedness. According to the memo, Railtrack does not envisage that all mission-critical work will be completed until the last day of 1999. computerweekly.co.uk

To: paul e thomas who wrote (3)	5/28/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: Nanda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29

Paul, I see a slow turn around of selected y2k stocks. I have had several discussions with my Street friends. The Street sentiment is changing. You will see the leaders will rise up to the top again. I will put KEA,CHRZ,IMRS,CBSL,and MAST in that category. SYNT is still testing its bottom before an upward movement. TAVA is an excellent buy here as I see an upward trend. I would not be surprised to see it in $14 territory. Most of the downward pressure had to do with market psychology. We have seen this with internet, banks,health and tech stocks. Predicting a bottom is always a problem but I think buys at this time would be rewarding. I personally plan to stay away from UBIX,ALYD,ACLY,CRYSF etc, stocks which do not have a significant market share or are only driven by contract news.