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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5568)	5/27/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: David Rosenthal	Respond to of 10921

Brian, In 1996, the whole sector melted down because of poor visibility. AMAT was slow to join the party but was there with everyone else at the end. It remained out of favor for about six months. In 1998, the visibility is currently as bad as it was in 1996. There are multiple factors that can affect when the next upgrade cycle starts: 1. Overcapacity 2. Revenue squeeze 3. Possible slowing demand 4. Recessions Until these issues are clarified, we are looking at flat/decreasing revenue throughout the sector, AMAT included. Look around at the sector and you can see that it is melting down. Many stocks have already broken their December 1997 lows. I think it is wishful thinking to expect AMAT to buck the trend. Good luck though. This too shall pass with patience. Dave

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5568)	5/27/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Brian: When for instance I say that the semi-equips are going to hit their 1996 lows, even though I don't qualify it, it does exclude AMAT. AMAT will not be at $11 this year. Impossible. But AMAT could be at 24 and could likely hit the 18-22 range as well. You are right when people throw stocks away that is the time to buy. Dec was one such time. But just because it happened once does not mean it won't happen again. There also is a corollary here - not only do you need the spike of fear to plunge the stock but you then need the stock to go down on low volume for several weeks if not months - and then base at these lows. AMAT only spiked down last Dec - the 2nd thing did not happen. I see lots of low volume distribution happening in other stocks these days and though I have no idea what will happen to AMAT I think it will happen. Shane.