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Microcap & Penny Stocks : IATV - ACTV Interactive Television -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ed doell who wrote (2145)	5/27/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Jeff Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4748

Hi Ed; As any long term watcher of IATV will agree, this most recent announcement is head and shoulders above their usual. They finally made it easy for anybody to take a swipe at calculating earnings per share/stock price by quoting the number of homes IA will be in: "The agreement with FOX Sports Bay Area brings the total potential reach of ACTV digital networks to approximately 22.5 million customers. " *** Caution! - the following contains irrationally exuberant material and may not be suitable for some viewers! *** Assume a 1% penetration, $50 revenue/customer/yr gives 11.25M$ revenue. Is a 50% profit margin reasonable for the sports end at this level of penetration? Is it scalable with increasing penetration? 50% profit with 25 mill. shares gives $0.23 eps or a $4.50 stock price (assume 20 pe). And if the 50% profit assumption is both accurate and scalable then this gives a stock price of $4.50 per percent of market penetration! Or restated, take the number of paying iatv customers, divide by 225000, multiply by $4.50, and that should be (close to) the stock price based on imminent earnings. Did I miss something here? Must be the 50%. This looks too good to be.... More than 20% of the people in the Canadian test who had set-top boxes capable of receiving (analog) actv programming chose to pay extra to receive the programming 'cause it made their hockey games so much better. I'm sure the digital stuff is much improved. And this ignores the educational/internet end! Comments on IA's profitability under various degrees of market penetration? Other stuff I missed? Of course the announcement did read "potential reach "... Luck to all, Jeff