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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Craig McNeill who wrote (942)	5/27/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 1279

Craig, one comment on your post. I did get the impression that the current quarter might be OK. Perhaps the work was so far along that it could not be pushed out by the customer. However, the current quarter is not what is important but how the following two will really be, and whether there will really be a major improvement after that. These machines cost a nice piece of change. It was clear from the call that there is a shift in demand from captive shops to merchant shops. I assure you the merchant shops will be more exacting in assessing their needs.

To: Craig McNeill who wrote (942)	5/29/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: The ChrisMeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1279

"20% growth and a 24 p/e don't do anything for me..." Could you explain? This seems like an approximately market P/E with above average growth rate, excellent technology and all as a bonus. BTW, if we take 0.45 - 0.50 earnings per quarter times 4, we get about 1.90 in earnings; with a stock price of 40, this gives a P/E of 21, rather than 24. Oversimple analysis? Yes, because it doesn't factor in growth, where we might be 18-36 months out, etc. What I haven't heard anyone mention is end-of-the-month selling. May hasn't been a good month for this stock, so people blowing it out here could account for the recent weakness. I think this is happening with a lot of tech stocks. My bias: I bought at 41+ back at the end of Jan, sold too soon (at 53) on the way up to over 60, and got back in a week ago when we dropped below 41. Too soon, but so what? This week's action a 2 or 3 points lower doesn't bother me since my effective basis is about 28. Gotta be careful reading too much into a day or two's action because this is a notoriously volatile stock. But it seems more like a hold or buy situation at these prices. Will be interesting to see if we can get some gas in the tank next week with any first-of-the-month buying. ChrisMeister