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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sung Chung who wrote (2498)	6/11/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Sung Chung	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3029

Where's the bottom? Well, in post 2498, I wrote about a huge head & shoulders formation with a base of $11-$12. Surprisingly, I didn't get any responses. I guess there aren't too many technicians. I am so bummed that I was right. Originally, I had thought about buying more at $18, but thought against it when I saw the H&S formation. Unfortunately, I still didn't sell the shares I did own, and didn't buy puts to protect myself. Substantial losses, despite having called a potential downturn. Now, we're at 14+3/16. Where's the bottom? The INVX Yahoo board was one of the rare boards at Yahoo that used to be civil. Now, there are bunch of a$$holes who are gloating and saying that INVX will fall to zero. Nonsense. I still stand by $11-$12, but I probably won't start nibbling until there is some technical move upwards. On the fundamental front, we see that INVX is rich in cash ($46.1 mil, 14.6 mil shares outstanding = $3.16/share in cash). The have comparatively minuscule liabilities (ST debt = $11.8 mil, LT = $0.9 mil, Total = $12.7 mil.). That means, everything else is basically equity. Not bad. Trailing P/E (fiscal yr 9/97) = 6.14, Current (9/98) = 9.78, and Next (9/99) = 6.69. Now, I expect downward earnings revisions, but INVX has already earned .76 in the first two fiscal qtrs. Even if we halve the remaining two estimates (now at .30 & .38 respectively), the current P/E is 12.90. Again, not bad. I would really like other opinions on the bottom. To summarize, mine is that INVX has good support at around $11-$12, longer term, it looks good, but short term ugly, there is no upside technical momentum in the charts. Recommendation would be to forget about it (unless you want to actively hedge, but the damage is already done) until the next fiscal year starts in October. Originally, I would have thought HDD would not be a cyclical industry, but I guess I'm wrong. However, if it is cyclical, we will get a cyclical bounce eventually. Well, all is not lost -- I sold WDC @ 20 based on another H&S pattern. Saved me a bundle...