The large shareholders right now did buy at lower prices. The flippers and traders are almost gone for now. So what we have now is a lot of small shareholders and a few big ones that have confidence in the outcome (I like to think of this group as visionaries, but some may call them lunatics with too much money). Some of the small holders will get nervous with each passing hour, and some will sell, saying, "I can't bear to lose money. It did not rocket to $5 like I hoped. It could be a scam." The buying will be small to medium buys by small to medium income investors. Every once in a while you will see a "visionary" buy. The "big boys", as they have been referred to on this thread, do not like to lose or risk money. They like "sure" things. They are waiting (and you can bet watching) for that piece of the puzzle that will push their scales in the direction of reward and away from risk. When it begins, it will be like someone dropping peas down a shoot at one per second and increasing the dropping rate in small but steady amounts. As more news comes out, the rate of drop will increase proportionately. The scale will begin to tilt toward reward slowly at first, but then all at once it will fall completely to that side. This is where you will have the traders back in, but the "big boys" will keep it running in an upward direction. .30, .35, .40, .38, .40, .45, .50, .48, .50, .55, .60, .57, .65, .75, .85, .75, .79, .86, .95, 1.00, .90, .95, 1.05, 1.35, 1.50, 1.75, 1.70, 1.60, 1.75, 1.85, 1.95, 2.10, 2.20, 2.00, 1.95, 2.00, 2.25, 2.40, 2.50, etc, etc.
Once the power money thinks that the risk is minimal, the rise will be fast and furious. The alternate scenario is, of course, that no type of confirmation ever comes. The power money never enters, and the small to medium size investors begin to lose all confidence and erode the price back down.
Turner is not stupid. He knows what the initial reaction would be, and he knows what the follow-up must contain and when it must come. If his goal was to simply put out around 15 million shares at about .30, then he has accomplished his goal. But, by the time you divide that money amongst ALL the insiders, directors, foreign officials, secretaries who inhale (poor presidential humor, sorry), etc., no one gets much. I can pick the negatives out one by one and tear this stock apart. I can also find the positives and rationalize away the negatives. Not one of the "visionaries" that have money in this stock are stupid (maybe too cocky, but not stupid). No, my scale that tilts from reward to risk (read that riches to wipe-out or genius to moron) is calibrated a little differently than the so called "big boys". I would guess that the small to medium investors that don't sell out when nervous have their scales calibrated like mine as well.
I have made MINE bed, and I will now lie in it. I have not made up MINE mind. I await Mr. Turner to do that. I sincerely hope that we will wake up in a peaceful ocean waterbed and not a bed of nails. I want my broker to only disturb me each time I can buy a new Ferrari, or to inform me what I have to sell to off-set the loss. If confirmation comes after hours, it will be hard to get in with the power money. If a negative is proven, it is always hard to get out with much worth talking about. I like the scenario. I will rest peacefully. Let's see where we wake up!
I remain,
SOROS
ps the above is only a story for entertainment written by a batty old man |
