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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocketman who wrote (4984)	5/28/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: James Silverman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

All, Quick take from the Sepr meeting: 1. SGP has claritin metabolite DCL on top priority. Plan to switch every dosage form and every indication. Also way ahead of what I had thought. Already in Phase II, Phase III's to start in Fall. Sounds like a comprehensive NDA filing is possible late next year. 2. Running a 1,000 patient trial comparing levalbuterol to ventolin with an eye on lung function. 3. List of outlicensing candidates is a nice lucrative list. Hope to license out 2 this year. The smallest from the list is Sporonax ($500MM) the biggest is Prozac ($2.6B). They call these life cycle extenders (LCE's) or something like that. 4. From 1998-2008 goal is to commercialize 20 products. I assume this means internal or licensing. 5. Looks like they are making nice progress in their NCE programs. I see them partnering with hosts of biotechs. 6. They are pushing forward very aggressively with their cash hoard. This isn't a company thats going to sit on their cash. This has all the makings of being a very large cash cow starting in 2001 when the royalties will start to pour in. If you run all the numbers, throw in a handful of new outlicensing agreements divide all those numbers in half to be safe, you still get pretty frightening royalty figures. Add in products Sepr is self or copromoting: levalbuterol (they tradenamed it XopeneX-thats right 2 capital X's), norastemizole and any other products that they choose to keep (formoterol, oxybutynin etc) assume half fail, the other half don't sell well and you still get a damned big cake. Jim