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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Rosenthal who wrote (5574)	5/27/1998 4:49:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

David: RE: In prehistoric times, January 1998, AMAT was available under 30. Were you accumulating then? Why aren't you looking for a better price now? The problem with me and the semi-equips is that I am deathly afraid that they will run away from me with my hands empty. When AMAT was in the upper 30's and looked to be heading to the 40's in the last couple of months I said no way. Now at least we have some hands giving up the ghost and selling the stock and we are back to some good support at 32. So I would put some in now. Yes I am looking for AMAT to go much lower. But I know there is no way for me to tell an absolute low - so I try to play +/- 30% of the realistic low. To me the realistic low is 24 and 30% above is 31 - which at the support level is 32. The low end is around 18 - now to many the delta of 45% is big - but I am guaranteed a 32 and I only expect an 18. Besides these stocks are volatile and I prefer to $ cost average. Am I accumulating? Nope. Why? Because no cash. Was I accumulating before? No - again no cash - I tend to be always 100% invested - so to buy something I have to sell something else and I only concentrate on one overriding essential thing - underlying business fundamentals and are they improving or deteriorating. To me AMAT's business had (and still has) more to go in terms of deteriorating (but obviously not as much to go since last Jan.!) Would I have accumulated before in Jan.? No - thought it was too early to buy in and that there was a lot of bad news left to come. (I usually do not play the trading games with companies I like - personality quirk.) Shane (currently no AMAT position)