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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (4393)	5/27/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Peter: JT suffers from the same issues that AGPH does... a costly sales force marketing a single product, and expensive, contract manufacturing. They'd be more than willing to entertain offers along with AGPH. They're also, of course, likely to be an independent suitor. I've lost track.... how much will JT receive from AGPH in the next 12 months? Viracept cash flow in the context of AGPH/JT results in modest profit. In the context of a pharma with a NNRTI, it would mean $300 million in profit, growing. JT knows this, and would try to bleed any deal for all it's worth. They would bargain, however. Even better..... JT itself wants into pharmaceuticals.... perhaps JJ and DD could deal for a piece of the old DuPont Merck. Merck has to be looking at AMGN (ignore Merrill Lynch, they've never been correct), and DuPont has to be looking at AGPH. I honestly believe that the trickle down from DuPont's entry into the sector will lead to an explosion in partnering and acquisition. Hoechst and companies like JT will throw fuel on the fire. I feel that the "the market cap of Merck is larger than the market cap of all of biotech combined" is finally going to hit home. There never has been a decent retort, and there are companies out there like MEDI and AGPH that are one lucky step away from breaking through. Heck, there are micro-caps that have leveraged business plans and that could break through with luck, and some of these crap-shoots are going to play, IMO. Once again, let's mourn the loss of our flagship, and dream of what AMGN could have been had Binder been capable of managing R&D. Oh, for the chance to relive the post-Rathman years with Binder as CEO and Patrick Gage as COO. :-) I'm psyched. The sector has been rotting for ages while the science has just rumbled along. Now, in the last few days, we have the last (I hope) few weak hands bailing into light demand. I have NEVER seen bargains like this, not even in 12/94. We can take our choices.... we can pick a good portfolio of "MLNM- and AGPH-like" companies and go on vacation for a year, or we can wade in every morning after a good night's rest and move cash around. Take your choice.... 70% over the next 12 months, or x00% plus. Cheers! x > 3 Rick