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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: W.F.Rakecky who wrote (16216)	5/27/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: gambler2	Respond to of 45548

Logically (I don't know if this is what happens), I think a company would want to preannounce as far out as possible, as soon as they know it is going to be a disaster. Hear me out a second--Say 2 weeks ago COMS preannounces that they see earnings well below expectations, the stock gets smashed, analysts downgrade, estimates cut and everything gets priced into the stock. By the time earnings come around the stock has already started making a rebound and when the earnings are announced there are no surprises. Whatever they say in the report we know already. That is why I feel the conference call is worth more then the numbers. Take CPQ for example (because I owned them when this happened). They said they see a breakeven quarter, stock fell 4 in a day, analysts came in and did their thing. In the interim the stock rebounded a little. Month later they announced bad earnings, However, the CC was so upbeat about the 2nd half of this year that MM and institutions jumped right back into the stock. I'm hoping the same thing will happen with COMS and we can see low 40's by Labor day..

To: W.F.Rakecky who wrote (16216)	5/27/1998 4:55:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

W.F.Rakecky: I'm surprised you saw my post, I posted it before I was done and then reedited. I guess you saw the beginning. >>Joe is there an etched in stone time-line for pre-announcing? << The way I look at it, it's a little bit of unwritten rules, and a little bit of just going through the companies ways of doing it. Generally, the last month of the quarter is preannouncement month and usually, the bad news comes out in the first 2-3 weeks at least. But, I've seen ANALyst (in particular Kurlak), say something bad on the very last day of the INTC preannouncement month. So, it could just be an ANALyst giving the company a bad spin. Kurlak is an expert on timing his preannouncements. Also, I'll never forget last November, when we didn't hear any bad news, and some people on the thread were saying to wait for Dec 1 & 2. And on Dec 2, I thought I had the quarter in the bag, and Eric B. comes out with sh*t news worse than we all thought. And then, there's the preannouncements that come after preannouncement month is over but a week or two before the company reports. Generally, companies don't do this. It makes them and the analyst who that cover them look bad. They've had enough time to get a feel for the quarter to know the story - unwritten rule, it's a no-no. Some companies do it, and then that's what starts the mistrust cycle which no company wants - not even 3Com. I haven't seen COMS pull this type of preaanouncement.....yet Then, getting worse, is when there's no preannouncement, and when earnings are reported, they miss by a little (nobody likes this but it's someimmes acceptable, depending on why they miss). And, then, there's the earnings report that misses by a lot. We all remember that one!! That just makes me even more untrusting - even though Eric B. had a decent excuse, but still, he should have been more understanding of everybodies expectations.... You can see INTC handling their pre-announcements pretty well, as of late....in the past they never had to worry about it, until last June (I think), they surprised the hell out of the market by preannouncing - kind of like if MSFT were to preannounce this June 1. This this make any sense? joe