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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5578)	5/27/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 10921

Brian: I was just saying 24 w/ a 30% drop is 17 or around 18 at a couple of year's ago psychological level of around 33-37 (before the split). So my "corridor" is 18-32. It is wide but that's the way with semi-equips - greater volatility implies wider buying corridors. You can't compare steady stocks vs. cyclicals. Also I have this theory that EVA is what is driving some of these valuations. And though KO is high and I would never buy it, can't deny, as Mason pointed out, that it has done a lot of people proud. Forget any P/Es or what have you with semi-equips and any such similar cyclical industries. About the only one that makes sense is the top line and the P/S ratio. At 18 we are 1.5 times sales. The smaller companies are coming at 1.0 x sales and less and even worse with book value. No way is AMAT going to do as poorly as this. 24 is 2 times sales and that to me is the reasonable low. (The sales may go down more so these ratios are a bit higher that what they could turn out to be - but I'll stick with my 24 is the resonable low and 18 could be the spike down in the event of all hell breaking lose.) shane.