To: Maurice Winn who wrote (10921 ) 5/27/1998 7:51:00 PM From: Gregg Powers Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
Maurice: I really appreciate your perspective and wit. I am frankly concerned that to an ever greater degree our new paradigm stock market looks more and more like a financial bubble. In some respects the last three years have been analogous to a Las Vegas slot machine programmed so that the player either wins the jackpot or gets all his money back. Such is not the historical norm and it is frightening to witness investors' lack of perspective and the belief that linear appreciation, not to mention a thirty percent compound rate-of-return, is some kind of God-given right. One post earlier in the day really rankled me. The person impatiently commented that he didn't want to hear about "start-up" problems and that such was "a loser's excuse". I wonder if this person had ever financed a start-up, built a business from the ground up or run any kind of complicated manufacturing entity. From the vantage of someone who has done most, but not all of these things, I look at Qualcomm with awe. Given all the moving parts, I find it amazing that operations have gone as well as they have to date as few companies, in my experience, go from a standing start to something north of $3 billion in annualized revenue in just over eighteen months. It is a Herculean challenge simply to hire enough employees, let alone train them, to support such exponential growth. If you want to give yourself a headache, really contemplate what is necessary to set up the supply chain, and provide inventory management and quality assurance, for a handset operation that has ramped as quickly as QPE. Hell, Motorola couldn't even get the basic chipset to work. But still, Wall Street and the other Monday morning quarterbacks are quick to criticize and pontificate about the company's troubled manufacturing effort. Give me a break. Sadly, in our go-go market, many investors seem to conclude that something must be fatally askew if their investment does appreciate on a daily basis. God help these people when the bear market finally begins. I don't mean to wax pedantic, but I recently read a Forbes story on the new "stock traders"; a collection of individual investors playing the market through their internet brokers. It was horrifying. These people were playing with thousands and thousands of dollars, and apparently making decent profits, with only the vaguest understanding of the fundamental issues underlying their investments. Yet I remember a period, not all that long ago, when good companies, with sound businesses, would report excellent financial performance and their stocks would promptly decline the next day. Such things happen in a bear market. The elevator seems to be getting painfully full and awfully close to the penthouse suite. Best Regards, Gregg