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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JPR who wrote (943)	5/27/1998 7:58:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12475

Casualties in case of a war. Here is the result of an unscientific study of casualties in case of a war between India and Pak conducted by University of Illinois,Urbana. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Nuclear War in South Asia: Estimates of Casualties In 1990, at the same time that Pakistan evidently acquired a nuclear capability, the Department of Energy requested the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois to conduct a study of nuclear proliferation in South Asia. One of the papers commissioned for that study estimated the casualties that could be produced in three different war scenarios. The study (based on unclassified sources) determined that there would be 500,000 to 1 million immediate fatalities on each side in a limited exchange on military centers; or 15 million (Pakistan) and 30 million (India) immediate fatalities, plus extensive to total economic disruption, in a larger or full-scale exchange. The population estimates were all based on 1980 census data, projected to 1990. Scenario A: hypothesized an attack only on military bases and cantonments. In both countries many military bases are located near major population centers. The scenario developed ten target areas for Pakistan, resulting in 580,000 immediate fatalities and 580,000 injuries. Fourteen prime target areas were identified in India, producing 500,000 immediate fatalities and 700,000 injuries. Scenario B: involved attacks on military and major economic targets (Energy, Nuclear Facilities, Irrigation and Water Resources, Industry, Transportation). It should be noted that in earlier India-Pakistan wars such targets were generally spared. The scenario concluded that both countries would be totally disrupted economically, and that fatalities and injuries would run in the millions. It was impossible to predict casualties precisely for this scenario because of the wide range of economic targets, some of which were in relatively isolated parts of India or Pakistan. Scenario C: was a hypothetical worst-case involving the deliberate destruction of urban centers. The study concluded that in such a scenario Pakistan would incur 17 million immediate fatalities (counted as 80-90% of population in all major cities), and that India would suffer 30-35 million fatalities (of which 20 million would be in Bombay and Delhi). Because of the limited concentration of medical and emergency treatment centers in the major cities of India and Pakistan the effect of such an attack would be especially long-lasting Source: S. Rashid Naim, "After Midnight," in Stephen Philip Cohen, Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia: Prospects for Arms Control (Boulder: Westview, 1991); Brookings Briefing, 18 May 1998