Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacques Chitte who wrote (9290)	5/27/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<Which 1/00 bank LEAPs do you see as having that kinda potential? How much must the underlying security fall to get that sort of number?> I own a few BT 85's and CMB's 80. That may seem so far out of the money but if you go back to April 97 CMB was 80 and BT was 75. You can pick these up for about $ 1 or $ 2 (I don't have a recent quote). These banks along with JPM and a couple of others have large derrivative exposure. This year alone over $ 10 trillion in derrrivative loans will come due and a lot of these deals were done with companies in Indonesia and S Korea who are teetering on insolvency. It is becoming very apparent that the list of countires in crisis grows longer each day. Loans will not get paid, derrivative losses will mount and earnings of banks will be hit hard. A retracement to prices 12 months ago is not unreasonable and IMO a better than 50-50 bet. Also options with a maturity of 2000 you have an added bonus of the Y2K problem adversely affecting stocks, especially banking stocks.