<<
John, I agree withyour premise that much Y2K work will be needed after 1/1/00. The
problem is however the market is already discounting the significance of Y2K
earnings. They won't be able to logically forecast post 2000 y2k revenue
>>
Paul,
This sounds pretty arrogant, but: in this case the market is wrong IMO.
The real bulk of Y2k remediation will be after 1/1/2000 IMO. Here is another article - one of the many on which I base my opinion:
Regards,
John
_____
'On Thu, 28 May 1998 02:21:11, "D. Scott Secor - Millennial Infarction Mitigator" <y2k@uswest.net.NO$PAM> wrote:
> >cory hamasaki 584 days left, "There is no way to do it in the time
> >remaining."
> >
> > In 84 days, there will not be enough time for triage,
> > positioning food storage, developing the bypasses for an
> > orderly shutdown, printing ration coupons, training
> emergency
> > co-ordinators, preparing the plans for allocating medical
> > supplies.
> >
>
>
> Cory, what makes you think that ration coupons and alternative currencies
> are not already being warehoused? I have witnessed several interesting
> proofs of "proposed" banknote designs designs that are not currently in use.
> Might they have been printed in bulk?
>
> Ciao,
>
> Scott Secor
>
Isn't someone supposed to jump in and demand a URL at this point?
Anyway, the problem isn't just the selection of a design and printing of coupons
and script, sure, that can take 3-6 months. Someone has to decide on a policy,
get it approved, disseminated to the public, who gets the coupons, under what
circumstances, what happens if they're stolen? Think people, you have 82 days
to realize that the century is ending and you gotta get ready.
A year ago, I saw an article about a company whose CIO woke up to Y2K. The
fellow claimed that he had 'solved' their Y2K problem... his solution, the
maintenance teams would find and fix the software. Oh-kaaaaa. Talking about
the problem is not solving it. Deciding to solve it isn't solving it. The only
think that counts is running code.
<parenthetical note, software is an abstract construct, just patterns of zeros
and ones, lit points on a CRT. It's easy to confuse abstract constructs such as
a corporate mission statement with other abstract constructs like correct source
code. It is also true that decisions flow to source just as source code flows
to object code. The issue is how much human intervention there is between the
decision to remediate and the implementation of the remediation. Too much time
is wasted on corporate mission statements relative to fixing and testing.>
We need to start on triage. Identify the 10-20 percent of the absolutely
necessary activities and fix the systems that perform those activities. Make
sure they run, cut corners (descope) if necessary. Design and build backups and
bypasses now rather than at 2:00 AM. Have lots of DASD and slots in the SILO,
extra MIPS because we'll be fixing programs and files while the production
window is closing.
Do you have an UPS? What about a 50KW diesel? How much fuel do you have on
hand? Sure, a CMOS box draws a lot less power than a 3090 Six Hundred
Enterprise but you'll still need lots of conditioned three phase to run
production. Here's a tip, one of the DC Y2K attendees, a multi-national corp,
is stockpiling diesel for the backup power to run their datacenters...
hoarding... just like a survivalist nut-case.
Do you have a war-room? One of my clients does, an area with terminals,
manuals, a meeting room, a refridgerator, microwave, etc. They didn't build it
for Y2K but to address general crisis situations. It will be useful for Y2K as
a central place where work and resources can be mustered.
Do you have credit lines and purchasing agreements in place now. A friend's
employer doesn't. I had lunch with him and another geek and together they put
over 25 thousand dollars on their personal credit cards last week. They need
stuff for an emergency project and can't wait for the P.O. to make it
through purchasing. They're deploying systems and need servers and routers.
They were griping about poor planning, cursing out the management chain. Make
it so, make it so.
Fix this stuff now, put corporate credit cards in the hands of the crash teams
or adios baby, it's too late, you had your chance, see you around clown.
What about specialists and emergency back up personnel. Between now and Y2K,
more than one company will see all their geeks get up and walk out the door...
hey where do you think you're going? -silence- they don't say a word. What's
your contingency for that? Call IBM Global Services? You got a half million
dollars per person in your budget?
What do you do if (no, make it when) the geeks take pity on you, instead of
just walking out, they say, we've been thinking, we need an extra hundred grand
each, now, today. Can you make that happen? No? Get someone who can or you're
outa business. Useless, childlike management, little kids dressed up in their
parent's clothes, pretending to do grownup work.
Suppose your system prints checks or food coupon vouchers and the pickup point
is across town but a riot is going on and the regular delivery service is afraid
to drive into the riot, what do you do?
Suppose half your staff calls in 'afraid to come to work', what do you do? Are
you thinking the unthinkable while you still have time?
82 days to wake up, wake up people, it's not business as usual, get outside the
box and have your running shoes on... you're gonna run like you've never run
before.
This isn't about remediation, that was 1996 and 1997. This isn't about orderly
triage, that was early 1998. This is about shifting to crisis mode, goin' milne
on a corporate scale.
ABANDON SHIP, a-oooo-ga, a-OOOOO-ga, shields down, bypassing the anti-matter
reactors, one photon torpedo left; it's the 9th round and Mr. T has been
hammering Rocky, -pow- -biff-, -ta-t-t-t-taaaa t-t-t-t-taaa doo-DOOOOO, one
armed pushups, get up and jump around Rocky.
cory hamasaki I'm jumpin' up and heading for the buffet table...
___
Subject:
Re: Cory Is getting Closer
Date:
28 May 1998 10:52:49 GMT
From:
kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net (cory hamasaki)
Organization:
HHResearch Co.
Newsgroups:
comp.software.year-2000
References:
1 , 2 |
