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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftth who wrote (1017)	5/28/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Respond to of 1720

Hi Dave, The OTC Bullish % Index is in Bull Confirmed risk status with the last X at the 62% level. But, the current reading is 56.30 (Bullish % charts are updated weekly). When it's revised tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 56 or lower, which would satisfy the 3-box (6 percent) reversal to a column of O's, and change the risk status back to Bear Alert. The S&P Bullish % Index is in Bear Alert status with the O at 66, and reading at 65.20. Tomorrow's revision could take it further down. Dorsey Wright does not create a Bullish % Index for the dow. The NYSE Bullish % Index is our primary indicator. As mentioned yesterday, it's in Bear Alert. The quicker moving Bullish % Indexes that usually precede the NYSE are the 10 Week MA, HILO, and Option. They in fact did precede the NYSE and are all in either Bear Alert or Bear Confirmed. I'm teaching an investment club about P&F charting (blind leading the blind) and developed my own definitions of the Bullish % Index 6 levels of risk status. My P&F mentor, Tom Dorsey, gave his thumbs up to these, and they're as follows: BULL CONFIRMED: Occurs when a column of X's moves above the previous column of X's. BULL CORRECTION: Occurs when a column of X's in Bull Confirmed risk status reverses down to a column of O's and 1) does not move below the previous column of O's, or 2) reverses down from above the 70% level but does not move to the 68% level or lower. BULL ALERT: Occurs when a column of O's in Bear Confirmed risk status drops to the 30% level or lower, and then reverses up to a column of X's and does not move above the previous column of X's. BEAR CONFIRMED: Occurs when a column of O's moves below the previous column of O's. BEAR CORRECTION: Occurs when a column of O's in a Bear Confirmed risk status reverses up to a column of X's, and does not move above the previous column of X's. BEAR ALERT: Occurs when a column of X's in Bull Confirmed risk status moves to the 70% level or higher, and then reverses down to a column of O's that drop to the 68% level or lower, and does not move below the previous column of O's. Take profits, tighten stops, sell calls, short, buy puts, in sheltered accounts roll into the money market, etc., etc., etc. Good Shorting, Eric

To: ftth who wrote (1017)	5/28/1998 2:07:00 AM
From: HeyRainier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1720

Dave and others, sorry for the delay. I'm preparing for an interview with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter tomorrow. Fingers' crossed. Rainier