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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meathead who wrote (45115)	5/28/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Meathead; Regarding: You are positive dell is overvalued but wouldn't bet on it??? And you call yourself a Day-Trader!?!? This statement essentially proves that you don't know jack about day trading. Sure, I expect DELL to be a $20 stock a year from now. That means that on the average 2-seconds of trading, it will drop by $0.00002. This is not enough to cover commissions, so I no need to put on the trade. If you don't have the fast reflexes that day trading requires, and tend to hold your stocks long-term, say an hour, then you can expect a drop of $0.03, which starts to be a reasonable amount, but is still barely enough to cover commissions. So sure, I expect DELL to go a lot lower, but it just doesn't matter to a daytrader. It just doesn't matter. As far as explanations for DELL's overvaluation, it is largely due to the lack of understanding of technology and business among investors recently. Here's a question for you: Clearly, if DELL is fairly valued today, then it was horribly undervalued a year ago. Why? -- Carl

To: Meathead who wrote (45115)	5/28/1998 12:28:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Meathead; Thought I'd share with you my plan for DELL tomorrow... A 10-day intraday chart: tscn.com If DELL gets over 88 1/2, I'll go long. If DELL appears to bounce off the 88 level, I'll go short, though not before the first fifteen minutes are over. Under other circumstances, I'll stay out, though I always reserve the right to do something stupid. :) -- Carl

To: Meathead who wrote (45115)	5/28/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Meathead; Regarding what I expect out of the next 18 months of PCs: I expect that the 200 MHz Pentium I put together 18 months ago will still be viable, but I will replace it with a Katmai machine about 18 months from now. Where is the industry going? More integration. Take a look at the size of your typical motherboard these days. More and more stuff is getting integrated, and this means less and less value added by the integrators. The box maker's margins are going to decline as well, as the ASP of their boxes decline. Give it more time, this is the way the industry works. And the increase in sales is not going to be enough to help revenues. Over the long term, say goodbye to the high stock prices for box makers (and retailers). As far as my understanding of general technical details of electronics and how this fits in with stocks, it takes a while for these sorts of things to come to fruition, and by the time they do, everybody has forgotten about what was said earlier on. For instance, A lot of RMBS people figured all PCs would eventually have RDRAMs in them, due to Intel's support, and had run the price up to nearly $90 per share. For instance: exchange2000.com I knew better: Designing only RAMBUS compatible processors would be an incredible gift to the competition, and isn't going to happen. 8/29/97 exchange2000.com Was I right? Lets take a look: Intel Reconsiders Rambus Transition techweb.com Intel architects tip Merced details at developers forum techweb.com Here is what happened to the RMBS stock price: tscn.com The $80+ stock is now less than half that, (and still overvalued). My understanding of hardware is second to none. I know how hardware is designed, I design it. I know how costs of goods sold work, I've computed them. I have spent many hours figuring out how to reduce costs in projects that later were produced in large volume. I know this industry. Integration is not done with this industry. It will not be done with this industry for another 5 years, probably. When it is done, PC box profits will be dead, dead, dead. Incredibly powerful PCs will sell for $50 to $100 over the cost of a similar size TV set. And DELL will be fairly priced at 10x earnings. And those earnings will be a fraction of current earnings. Could I be wrong about this? Not a chance. But DELL is probably going to go up tomorrow, I think, and as a day- trader, I intend on getting in on the action. -- Carl