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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: thebeach who wrote (47607)	5/28/1998 12:21:00 AM
From: Darren	Respond to of 61433

If all is OK with ASND,then why were the networkers strong at the end of the day and ASND was not.This LU story was reacted to by the traders and ASND is perceived as losing market share,just MHO. I'm sure I'm going to catch all kinds of hell for this comment, but when a stock gets a downside surprise as ASND did last year, there is a common pattern. That pattern is that the stock eventually climbs close to the original price, sometimes surpassing it briefly, and then pulls back about 10%-15%. Recent examples include CPQ since March 1, CIEN, and INTC (almost; got to 85). For cruddy stocks, they sometimes never see that high again -- i.e. the luster is gone. For good stocks, it just becomes a temporary setback. My guess is that this happens because MM's need to at least get flat on their errors, so the bounce is a guarantee -- but then the buyers that bail them out are often stuck with a now higher risk dog than they thought they were getting...and this little trick won't work outside of a "major" growth sector. If a metal-bending company dumps, it's a little different than a tech company with potential for 50% growth... Does this qualify with ASND? Yes, and no. As a takeover candidate, it's got a better chance than some. It's in an obvious growth market, and not all that susceptible to the world's current financial crises "du jour." But it's not a sure thing and it's not the leader in it's #1 market. It's a 2 or a 3 for the "Value-Line" investor... If you are in this stock at >50, I feel your pain, but you could make that money work for you somewhere else at a much faster rate than ASND's recovery... Just my lame opinion, and save the flaming emails for your next marshmallow bonfire...

To: thebeach who wrote (47607)	5/28/1998 2:52:00 AM
From: Dennis R. Duke	Respond to of 61433

This is a company that pays its people in stock options, which inturn are sold in the market, which causes any bad news or potential bad news to be guessed as negative. That approach causes ASND to be more bouncy than the other NWXers, IMHO. If you follow the Ciena thread LU is vaporware. It remains to be seen if they have anything that can be usable to delay decisions that are being made now for ASND hardware. There are two things that the market can react to in the LU announcement in my opinion: 1) ASND will be preceived to be not in play for LU. That takes some preminum out of the stock. 2) ASND has a future competitor, which might pull down market share. That too would pull down ASND, if believed. Couple that with the every present concern for why management would sell and that makes for a buying opportunity. Or did at some point today. Too bad I am out of cash. Later, Dennis