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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyC who wrote (3045)	5/28/1998 3:00:00 AM
From: Maurice S. Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

Rocky---your info is greatly appreciated. You obviously know whereof you speak (write). I have been invested in both IPEC and SFAM with the emphasis on SFAM. This am I sold all my SFAM and went short SFAM because of Tuesday's release. Fortunately I got out at reasonable prices, but was shocked to see the final UP closing. I feel that there was some chance of a buy out by LRCX or Novellus. Have you any feelings or facts on this possibility? Please stay around and keep posting. Thanks

To: RockyC who wrote (3045)	5/28/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

<<Sources are always fun but since I work in the industry I'd say I have a little more detail than "sources".>> I guess I could take strong offense to this. My sources are your counterparts working right beside you in other fabs around the world. They're not rumor spreaders. They are NO DIFFERENT than you. These "sources" are hard working engineers or investment bankers some of whom are my friends, a good portion of whom I trust and have known for most of my professional life. And by the way, do you know if I have worked, work or will be soon working again in "the industry"? <The trends I was referring to are that AMAT is gaining marketshare. As much as I hate AMAT, its true. This has only been happening in the past 2 qtrs so most of AMAT's gain won't show up till the CY98 numbers are released.> True or untrue, I don't think anyone can actually say this at this juncture for certain. Contracts have not been awarded to date and as far as I know - of course, you may question whether I know anything - SFAM has not begun to lose their customer base. With that said, I must reiterate that AMAT in under no obligation presently to publish real CMP EPS numbers b/c it isn't currently "material" to their bottom line to date. AS such, you ask me to rely on your statements. Sorry, but your information is no better than my sources. :~) <<AMAT is gaining because of their vast sales & support network that is larger than ALL of SFAMs company (by a factor of 4).>> Not that I profess to be certain of anything, but do you know of any new contract awards as a result of a beauty contest between AMAT and SFAM? Clearly what you say is true, but that has little to do with why I suppose SFAM might be losing marketshare should that be a truism. I wouldn't be suprised though if SFAM lacked technical support (whether it be in sheer numbers or maybe technical abilities) for potential customers without process experience. <<Well in AMAT's case, they are finally in the market with a good machine and any engineer with a sense of self preservation will almost always chose AMAT when all things are equal.>> If that were true my sources would I guess be rebels without any interest in job preservation. I guess if that were also true, AMAT would have NO competition in any other subsector of the semi-equip industry which they market their products. So much for NVLS, etc. :~) By the way, at some companies, engineers don't make these equipment decisions - they are made by opps guys who look for info on throughput, footprint, and COO before a contract is drafted. <<SFAM's other (early) strength was tungsten CMP, the past year IPEC's 676 & 776 have done well against it and SFAM has all but lost that battle too. So they are losing on 2 fronts (the only 2 that exist), oxide & tungsten.>> When and where did they lose this battle. Please support this with something factual besides your own engineering perspective. <<Lastly, the SFAM machine is ill suited to polish copper wafers and they will have considerable problems when the battlefield moves there in earnest.>> The battlefield is far off enough that they can and will catch up if that is true, which I cannot prove or disprove otherwise. They are spending a chunk on R&D in this area and have proven themselves to be efficient users of R&D money to create innovation in a hsort timeframe: see Auriga-C. <<Both AMAT & IPEC have copper machines at Sematech, SFAM wasn't even considered.>> This isn't as big a deal for AMAT as it would have been for SFAM. AMAT is 1000 pound gorilla, so Sematech's selection is neither suprising or overwhelmingly relevant. Decisions are made on CMP based on performance, support and reliability. AMAT doesn't need SEMATECH to sell - though it would have been nice for someone to get the nod - and I'm sure that AMAT has the power to twist a few arms if it means slicing one of their compeitors up. AMAT is and has been a serious threat to SFAM since they entered this market segment. So, whether SEMATECH blesses them or not doesn't really impact on that reality. << Sorry this took so long and sorry to doubt you.>> Everyone should bring a healthy dose of skepticisim to any of these threads. So it isn't you, but what facts I've gathered and how they match up with the (mostly) opinions your offered based on no real facts (no disrespect intended). Having said that, I too enjoy debating conclusions based on facts (hence the profession I chose), but I see no benefit in debating opinions. None of the above is intended as a slam, but I would rather contribute to a factual discussion on the Auriga-C (have you seen, tested played with one?) than an a discussion on the conlcusion that AMAT is "kicking ass." If the thread wishes to go in that direction, I will go silent and lurk because I see little benefit in such a forum for me personally. <<CMP happens to be a particular expertise of mine.>> While I am no longer an semi-engineer, I am comfortable enough with CMP having worked with it to hold a technical discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of Auriga-C, as well as Mirra. If I have the time, maybe we should focus our energies in this direction. Well I've taken enough of the thread's time. Just one man's spin.....SemiBull

To: RockyC who wrote (3045)	6/5/1998 8:21:00 PM
From: Lord	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

Rocky I agree with you on the power it takes to compete with AMAT. The current industry cycle is putting alot of pressure on all Equipment makers though. I am sure that AMAT is not without pain. I nearly bout it today at 29. With the YEN at 140 the Asain competition will be significent so the resolution needs to be in the domestic market. The recent IPEC and NVLS agreement is also of little concern there is nothing to say that SFAM and NVLS can't come to a similar agreement. SFAM still has the COO advantage as far as I know and as the $1000 PC pressure continues and CMP becomes a bigger percent of the pie it could play. As far as Sematech's not considering SFAM I am sure they did. I am not sure why the decision not to place a tool on site was made but you can be assured that it was a biased decision and not a technical objective one. Another thought along these lines is that Sematechs charter is to assist in improving tools. It also may suggest that the SFAM tool is beyond them. But bottom line is that AMAT is up to what they do best which is market domination. NVLS wants to be able to court IPEC's customers so they can survive. SFAM simply needs to find those kind of customers.