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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (172)	5/28/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3536

Chip, A lot of what is going on between India and Pakistan has been happening in relationship to China. There a line of arguement that India detonated their devices more as a demonstration to China than Pakistan. Then, in the age old tradition of the enemy of my enemy is my friend, China helps Pakistan and Pakistan looks to China for help. Neither Pakistan or India is expansionist in the traditional sense but there are still a lot of border disputes between the two. In addition Pakistan still deeply resents India for aiding Bangladesh in seperating from Pakistan. And India in turn resents Pakistani aid to secessionist elements within India and general troublemaking particularly, I believe, in the Punjab. China for good measure gets involved because of border animosities and the fact that the Tibetan resistance, which is more of an international pr problem than anything else, is Indian based. As far as sanctions are concerned, the cynic in me doubts the political will in the West to impose severe sanctions. Absent a vocal public reaction that they can demagogue I suspect our brave political leaders will quickly return to personal animosities and domestic concerns and the sanctions will be ineffective and short lived. Henry