DVD discussed at E3
Peter Hoddie, Apple's senior QuickTime engineer, says DVD-drives will soon replace CD-ROM drives in computers and, in time, will make the VCR extinct, as well.
Hoddie and three other panelists looked at DVD's future in a May 29 "State of the Art of Digital Devices" session at the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) in Atlanta,
Georgia.
Joining Hoddie in the session were David Obelcz, a software solutions technician at Compaq; Rajesh Shakkarwar, DVD technical development manager at Intel; and
Steve DiFranco, director of product placement and market development at Iomega. All agreed that the DVD would play a role of looming importance and lead, at least in
part, to the long promised goal of convergence. And, DVD's prominence will come sooner, not later.
"DVD will happen on personal computers because DVD disc makers will make it happen with price cuts," Hoddie said. "We'll be seeing more than video on DVD. It will
contain data for a variety of uses. Pop a DVD disc into your set-top box and what you'll see on TV will be good. Insert it into your computer and what you'll see will be
even better because you'll be able to access extra information. It's an extension of what we're doing with CD-ROM today."
Obelcz agreed, calling DVD an "evolution, not a revolution" of the CD-ROM. The Compaq spokesperson said projections were for eight million DVD units to be sold this
year, and he predicted 35 million would be sold next year. "Prices will go down, and the day will come when it will be cheaper to put a DVD drive into computers than
CD-ROM drives," Obelcz said. Shakkarwar said more DVD units were sold in the technology's first year than CD-ROM units were sold in that technology's first year.
DiFranco said DVDs would eventually be the replacement for the videocassette because it cost about $4 less per copy to make DVD movies than to duplicate them on
videocassette.
When asked when consumers would have the capability to record on DVD discs, Obelcz said there were already units available for under $600 that made this possible. In
the short run, this means that DVD can be used as a good backup for hard discs, for video capturing and simplifying the creation of personal digital movies. In the long
term, when the more advanced, "blue light" DVD technology drops in price, "you can kiss the VCR goodbye; VCRs and camcorders will change," Obelcz said.
"The ultimate promise of DVD is to provide, and I hate to use this overused word, convergence," he said. "A DVD disc can combine the uses of the VCR, audio CDs, and
CD-ROMs. A DVD disc, fully utilized, will be something I can use in the DVD player hooked up to my TV, something I can play in my car's CD player, and something I
can use in the DVD drive on my computer." When the panelists were asked what compelling DVD applications they had seen, Obelcz said he would be controversial
because he hadn't seen any. However, he added that he's seen some promising ones "behind closed doors" at E3. Obelcz and the other panelists were excited about the
promise of DVD applications.
"DVD discs offer better graphics and better interactive movies," Shakkarwar said. "Developers are limited only by their imagination." Hoddie said the state-of-the-art
DVD applications were still in the "CD space." For instance, while the DVD version of Riven made good use of the technology by offering a multiple CD-ROM discs on
one DVD disc, it was a "great but not radical" DVD program, at least when measured by the potential of the platform. Hoddie pointed out the potential of DVD by
discussing its "incredible" audio compression, especially in light of the fact that DVD discs are targeted toward newer, faster personal computers. "With the right audio
compression, you could put all of Beethoven's music on one DVD disc and still have space left," Hoddie said. He added that, "It's no longer necessary to do 'one trick'
pony programs and games. DVD lets you use more modern technologies to offer richer environments on more platforms."
DiFranco said the advent of DVD meant a need for new tools that would allow more people to create DVD titles. He expects to see professional "compressionists"
coming into the market to make full motion picture video easier. DiFranco also expects to see libraries of video clips become as commonplace as libraries of clip art are
now.
The problem with DVD is that "it's World War III" when it comes to DVD re-recordable standards, Obelcz said as several companies and organizations are pushing their
own technology as the standard. However, he expects to eventually stabilize so that one standard is eventually accepted. For now, Hoddie says QuickTime 3.0 has the
potential to broaden DVD's scope. He says a lot of DVD-ROM titles will be designed to run on straight DVD players.
"QuickTime 3.0 is the only technology that makes it simple to ship a single application that works on all shipping platforms," Hoddie said. "QuickTime 3.0 also offers the
best basis for authoring tools." Hoddie also said the emergence of DV recording devices (DV camcorders are growing in popularity in countries such as Japan) will also fit
into the overall changing technology picture. DV recording devices will appeal to consumers as well as professionals because of their outstanding features and low price.
Hoddie also said such devices would make video editing more commonplace for consumers.
The QuickTime architect also pointed out to the E3 gamers attending the session that there's a danger of DVD games and applications falling into the "click and wait" trap
of CD-ROM programs. But unlike CD-ROMs, DVD programs will probably be too feature rich and memory intensive to download onto a computer's hard disk.
"Remember: design your games to avoid the 'click and wait' syndrome," Hoddie said. |
