To: Walt Corey who wrote (45154 ) 5/28/1998 12:20:00 PM From: Chuzzlewit Respond to of 176387
Walt, I started reading a book called The Gorilla Game . While ostensibly a book on investing, it really is a book focusing on how technology is accepted by consumers. One of the contentions it makes is that certain technology companies enter what the authors refer to as a Tornado (which is a hypergrowth phase, and is characterized by mass acceptance of the product). According to the authors, stocks of companies entering this phase of their life cycles are undervalued and are consistently undervalued by the market for considerable periods of time. I reject this view, because it assumes that there is a proper value that is different from the market value. If that valuation scheme were generally accepted we would expect the price to reflect that scheme. An arbitrageur would promptly either buy or sell short according to the results of that calculus. If you doubt the power of arbitrage, take a look at how rapidly merger candidates come into equilibrium. So, for these under or overvaluation arguments to have validity we must assume two things. First, that we know how to properly value the security (in my opinion we don't), and secondly the market must be inefficient in reflecting the current body of known information (this is true for micro cap stocks, but I doubt that well followed issues such as Dell are inefficient). So, my position on swings in the market place are related to two factors: an economic plebiscite on investor perceptions for the company at the moment, and general market conditions. Bottom line: the market is the valuation mechanism. It is our guesses that are either over or undervaluations. TTFN, CTC