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To: John Hunt who wrote (15818)	5/28/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

John, I believe that David Roche underestimate the power of a whiff of defaltion (I hope everyone remember the definition of defaltion) on the bond market. This will be enough to keep the bull alive for the next year. Problems associated with declining profitability will not be important, IMHO, until the middle of next year. The first impact on our economy will be a strong dollar, stable prices and interest rate that may decline under 5.5% by the end of the year. The impact of our declining export will be balanced by more internal growth at home and of course low interest rates. Yesterday I have just gone back to almost 50% equity, and I would have gone higher if I did not feel that we might have another shake out in Autumn. Right now apart of few minor bumps (I expect a bunch of earning warnings in the next two to three weeks, causing weakness until early July, but nothing very dramatic), I expect the market to reach new highs on the Dow by mid August. I am not sure if the Naz will, and it it does not, then, the possible Autumn weakness will become more probable, IMHO. Zeev

To: John Hunt who wrote (15818)	6/1/1998 7:18:00 AM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Forecast - Hard landing for Asia as growth shrinks biz.yahoo.com << Economic growth across Asia is grinding to halt as the fall-out from last year's currency crisis settles across the region, and economists are slashing forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) on a regular basis. The problem is that domestic economies have not been dug out of a hole by a boom in exports, even though Asian goods are much more competitive abroad given the 15 to 80 percent drop in the value of regional currencies from pre-crisis levels. ''In the aftermath of the Asian currency devaluations last year, many commentators in the West and Asia expected a wave of cheap Southeast Asian and Korean exports to come crashing onto the shores of the G7 markets,'' said Santander Investment economist Nicholas Brooks. "They're still waiting." >>