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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (21534)	5/28/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Henry, Well put. A couple of points: - you're right, Targretin is in Phase II, and no indication's been given as to when they are hoping to move from Phase II trials (plural) into Phase III. What I really have is a guess as to the eventual viability of Targretin in diabetes. - we don't know the relative weight LLY put on Targretin, and on the other products under development and the basic research, when they valued the deal internally. As you've described, PPAR modulators (like Rezulin and the other TZD's) and RXR modulators act to reduce insulin, blood glucose levels, and triglycerides, independently and synergistically. Rezulin is a first generation TZD, and is extremely successful. In its fourth full quarter on the market in the US, it's at a $55OM run rate. LGND apparently has PPAR modulators under development that are more potent than Rezulin, and LGND appears to be the dominant player in RXR's (who else is there? AGN? And LGND has a piece of whatever RXR modulators they have). If LLY put a heavy weight on Targretin in signing the deal with LGND, on the one hand, they must have had reasons for optimism that Targretin may be effective in diabetes, but of course it would be significant to them if Targretin doesn't end up viable in diabetes. However, if LLY was hopeful about Targretin in diabetes, but mostly signed the deal for the other products earlier on in development and for LGND's basic research, then that says something about LGND's ability to sign such a significant deal for what's relatively early stage stuff. Peter