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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (16202)	5/29/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Clint E.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69103

Hi Harry. My fascination with JDEC stopped a couple of months ago. I'll get back to you this weekend on PSFT. Trying to finish some work to start some jobs over the weekend. What a loosing battle for the bulls today. Low vol day. NAZ down 9. Looks like things are going to get nasty toward the end. That intraday gap from Wed needs to be filled, I guess. Out of LHSPF & short TLAB. I may short ADSK too. Looks very sick and manipulated. SOX???? People must be expecting lots of disappointing warnnings out of this group. Clint

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (16202)	6/1/1998 3:23:00 AM
From: Clint E.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69103

Hi Harry. >>What is your take on PSFT and SDTI at this point? >>PSFT was upgraded today and SDTI was downgraded. Yes, upgraded to price target of 75! Harry, I know a lot about this sector of technology so if you have more questions, let me know. I was first introduced to PSFT in early 96 when I was flying back from a biz trip. The guy who sat next to me was a project management consultant working for Deloitte & Touche. We started talking about sound amplifiers and ended up talking about stocks and the ERP market. His company is part of "the big six" accounting firms that provide computer consultants and service providers globally(Anderson consulting, Price Waterhouse....) Anyway, in the ERP market, the major players based on ranking are; #1 SAPHY,37% mkt shs--serves large accounts #2 ORCL ,13% mkt shs #3 PSFT ,9% mkt shs #4 JDEC ,7% mkt shs--mostly active in midmarket, others are moving in #5 BAANF,6% mkt shs PSFT is about to steal the #2 spot this year since it is not too far behind ORCL and ORCL's ERP mkt. growth has been dismal. PSFT has a few weaknesses. One is lack of global presence. ~85% of PSFT revenue is still generated in North America. The other weaknesses are weak manufacturing product, lack of object-oriented technology, and lack of any SFA(sales force automation) and customer-management applications(the so-called front-office applications suite).They are strong in Human Resources & Financial modules. PSFT 7.5, recently release SW, is supposed to address the mfring issue and jump start international sales. The object-oriented problem won't be fixed until release 8.0. SAP, doesn't' have it either. All the ERP vendors try to build their products along vertical industrial lines so they have been offering versions of their ERP packages that target at specific industries. None of them have the best-of-breed technology to offer at the moment so you would see GM choosing SAP for its mfring and PSFT for its human resources functions. A bandit like DELL took it further and built its own ERP by using ITWO to control the flow of materials, SAP for human resources, and another company called Glovia to for mfring tasks. As far the weakness in the front-office automation, there has been rumors of PSFT buying VNTV since they use VNTV products internally. 1/2 of PSFT revenue comes from license fees, ~>1/4 from training and consulting, and <1/4 from maintenance. Last Yr. they earned ~$815 & this yr. they are expected to do ~$1.3B. However, the headcount is expected to reach 7k this year from 4.4k so expenses should rise dramatically. If they grow their consulting biz., margins should expand nicely. You can look at earnings estimate and see it is an expensive stock but if you compare it to BAANF and read this article that talks about BAAN's questionable accounting practices, you may change your mind! BAANF: crn.com Earnings est: biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Like I said after last earnings, the stock should swing in the 40s until next earnings. It had got ahead of itself before. On SDTI, my only interest in them is the ACE card I use to log onto my workstation at work! I bailed out with a fat $17 loss last month. Take care; Clint