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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3965)	5/28/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: Joe Dancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Hey Mike. Maybe Russia is the next phase of the "Asian" crisis - members.aol.com Also, bad news for the Asian economies seemed to come in spades recently - members.aol.com Joeÿ

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3965)	5/28/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Mike, so far we have been worrying about the Eastern part of Asia. I think that we may need to start to worry about the center soon, Pakistan with its no win situation will suffer much more than India under the sanctions. No one mentioned it both both Pakistan and of all, New Zealand, hit new lows last night. As for our old discussion about the motives of Vajpayee. I think that it has become clearer to me. First few facts. Seismic recorded only one of the five nuclear detonations India purportedly blew up. I wonder why The seismic station in Nilore Pakistan is 700 miles from the epicenters and should have been able to record even single kiloton detonations. Could it be, that India really blew only one of these. If that is the fact, then it is now clear to me. It was not done for any "technological" reasons, it was done to force Pakistan hands to detonate its own. Such Pakistani detonation has huge advantages (seemingly) to India. It forces the US to apply sanctions on both parties. Sure, but India does not depend on the US for its weaponry, Pakistan is much more dependent. Now India can do what it wishes in Kashmir (and I see a blow out there), since Pakistan really cannot even threaten military retaliation (their ammunition will run out). Atal Bihari Vajpayee's name will be remembered with deridation for a long time. To release the Nuclear genie for such petty reasons (and few other "domestic patriotism" reasons as well). What Vajpayee fails to see is that if Pakistan cannot resist aggression by "traditional means" it has no choice bu to use the Nuclear route, and Vajpaee is going to bring on India a curse he wish he never started. Of course, now both nations will have to engage in a neck breaking race as to who can develop the best and most accurate delivery systems, and both are going to waste who knows what percentage of their GNP on these follies. One of the little problems Vajpayee forgot to consider is that Pakistani bomb is also the "Muslim" bomb. I would not be surprised to see Indonesia and Pakistan shaking hands just over Indian territory. Well, when you seed misery it is what you harvest. Zeev