To: Rick Voteau who wrote (6453 ) 5/29/1998 8:37:00 AM From: John Melillo Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Rick, I really don't know if Alydaar will fly again. First, you should know that I am a position trader. That means that I assess a company's fundamental data and use technical analysis to determine proper entry and exit points. Therefore, when I choose a stock to play, I try to stack probabilities in my favor. Try to imagine you did not own Alydaar for the last few years and were looking at this company for the first time. Would you still buy the stock? The sector is performing poorly. The stock is performing poorly. There are only 6 qtrs left to the year 2000. There are no analysts following the company so there are no earnings estimates for the next 6 qtrs other than the vague "over a dollar a share" statements thrown out by the company. Post 2000 growth or even maintaining revenues is anyones guess. I personally don't buy the aquisition strategy of "one plus one equals three". Look at it this way, if you wanted to buy Alydaar, you would be paying a ridiculous price for a company who's earnings are unknown so how can a company with no capital purchase a company that is performing and expect no dilution? You would think that the prospective aquisition candidates would purchase Alydaar, not the reverse! So, fundamentally and technically, I think Alydaar is too much a risk. On the other hand, supporters such as Jeff M. are betting on their knowledge of the problem and the industry. If he is right, he will be greatly rewarded. So, as an investor, I would not buy it. It is much too risky at this point for my taste. You must make your own decisions. I recommend, however, that you do not get "married to the stock". This is easy to do and poor investing. It will not go back to thirty because you want it to, you must listen to the market.
