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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roadkill who wrote (17846)	5/29/1998 3:43:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

I gather from your post that you think we've seen the lows already. If that's correct, what do you base that on? I'm always willing to be persuaded by a strong argument. I would never presume to call a bottom or top. I don't do TA and would be going on gut feeling or "stiffness of the joints" if I tried. Any optimism is based on the company's prospects and has nothing to do with market conditions. There, it's anyone's guess. I know a lot of managers have built cash and are waiting for the right time to re-enter. I also know many stocks don't need a "10-15% correction" because they've been correcting for the past 9 months and any gains they may have made off their bottoms haven't come close to their 52-week highs. >>> (1) The asian crisis has not been resolved; rather than stabilizing, it just keeps growing. The final damage is uncertain, and the market hates uncertainty;>>> We've been in uncertainty since last August. On the one hand we've had the best market condictions in decades here in the U.S. and the Asian crisis has been a God-send, keeping the Fed from raising rates. On the other hand, part of the world has been sliding into financial ruin with the end result they're producing goods more cheaply, leading to conditions that will 1) stimulate electronic component sales and 2) hurt the U.S. labor market which could use a little air taken out. (Not that I want that to happen.) <<< (2) Numerous foriegn markets are in downtrends, while the US market has gleefully looked the other way. History tells us that this does not last for long;>>>> And some of those markets are turning around. According to your charts, which have bottomed and which haven't? I wouldn't say the US has looked away "gleefully." It's not glee I feel but schizophrenia. <<<(3) (an extension of #1) The current 5-8% decline seems incredibly inconsequential, particularly in light of the India/Pakistan mess, and the fallout from the US imposing sanctions on those countries. In effect, exports to India, Pakistan and Indonesia (political crisis) will stop, while Japan is still a disaster and will remain so for God knows how long;>>> Again, I'm factoring in the whole fall-winter slide as part of the tech correction. The top 50 stocks in the S&P soared as did the Internet stocks. Most others have had modest rebounds and the current correction needs to factor in the punishment already delt. This is all to say I don't see any reason why CYMI should test its 52-wk low --- considering the worst of the Asian economic slow-down is behind us. <<<(4) The current general market rebound came on lower volume Thursday; unless we see a follow-through from Wednesday's late day up-move in the next week or ten days, TA says that the down-trend will resume, likely breaking the lows of this week. >>> I agree and will be watching volume along with everyone else. <<<With regard to CYMI, the bounce Thursday came through uninspired trading, on somewhat low volume vs. the average daily volume, and stopped dead around 17 1/2. For comparison, take a look at the bounce in PMCS, or TDFX. Until we see some serious volume, I don't think we're going to move much higher than that. At the very least, I'd like to see some capitulation. >>>> It went up 4.89% on decent volume. [653K versus 751K average.] As for comparisons, I don't see the connection. All theories are moot if the center doesn't hold on world events. Pat