To: Nancy who wrote (9031 ) 5/29/1998 12:08:00 PM From: Robert Graham Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42787
There are two different types of growth stocks. One that primarily attracts the speculative player in the market and the other that is more well-established and mature company that has slower growth but more reliable growth that has been proven over the longer term. This second less volatile type of stock attracts the more conservative investment crowd. Matter of fact, I would classify DELL as the type of stock that the public at large plays which can send the stock price well beyond fundamental valuations. Such is the life of a momentum stock. This is where the exuberant buying public gets caught up in the "image" of the company and its product, this case PCs, instead of anything to do with fundamentals, other that thinking that no matter what the earnings, it will increase, and no matter how high the stock price gets, it will go up. Sentiment to a large extent drives the purchases of this stock. However, all this company needs to do is disappoint and the speculator will start to flee this stock. Depending on the type of market, if the second type of more well-established company disappoints, many will remain with the company because their perspective is for the longer term. In time DELL can mature enough to become part of this class of stock and perhaps still maintain a very respectable growth rate. DELL has not been around long enough to qualify in the same class as a MSFT or INTC or CPQ or others. You must be able to see this difference, don't you? Or is the growth rate and how high the stock price can go the only way that you categorize stocks? I am not saying there is anything wrong with this approach particularly in the strong bull market we have been in, but it will have certain limitations in a different market. I do not think you will find many willing to place DELL in the same class of INTC and MSFT and even CPQ for instance. If you do not understand what I am saying here, then I am sure you will see this when you experience a different market that comes from a more laggard economy and less robust stock market. I suspect the market will then be different than what you have experienced in the past. Money looking for growth will then locate companies that still have good growth rate but are not the "shooting stars" in both the growth rate and price of the stock like DELL has been. Perhaps what may help here is understanding the difference between a "bellweather", a "leader", and a stock that has a very high growth rate and associated momentum to the stock that is the current "darling" of the public. I think this will provide some worthwhile insight into what is behind my statements. Bob Graham