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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (9334)5/29/1998 8:46:00 AM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18691
 
I was just looking at ICOS. Float is 31 million with less than 2% short. Once it tops out, could be a good short.

Looks like another ENMD.



To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (9334)5/29/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: BDR  Respond to of 18691
 
Re: ICOS

I have not heard about the company before. So far all I know is what was in the article you referenced. After reading the article I have these reactions:

<<The company has a number of products in
various stages of clinical trials--including IC351, an anti-impotence pill that, he (McCamant)
says, ''will be a potentially better product than Pfizer's Viagra, because it has
fewer side effects.'' >>

Side effects so far don't seem to be that big a deal. Be nice if they didn't happen at all but patients don't seem to be sufficiently bothered by them to stop using Viagra if it resolves their impotence. The interaction with nitroglycerin does exclude a portion of the potential market. A drug that can avoid that interaction would have a significant niche even if the side effects were the same as Viagra.

<<IC351 blocks the action of enzymes called
phosphodiesterases (PDEs), believed to inhibit production of an erection, explains
McCamant. IC351 controls the same enzyme that Viagra does. The reason that
this pill has fewer side effects, claims McCamant, is that IC351 is more selective:
It inhibits just the enzymes that block blood flow into the penis.>>

I am not sure whether the side effects of Viagra are due to cross reactivity with other forms of the phosphodiesterase enzyme in other tissues or due to the presence of the specific phosphodiesterase isoenzyme in tissues other than erectile tissue. If it is the former and IC351 is more selective, then it should have fewer side effects. If it is the latter, then IC351 should have no advantage.

<<ICOS
may also develop IC351 as a treatment for congestive heart failure and angina,
says McCamant.>>

This statement seems to contradict his earlier claim that IC351 is more selective for erectile tissue. If IC351 is specific for erectile tissue how will it be useful in treating cardiac problems? If it does have cardiovascular effects why will it have fewer side effects when used to treat impotence? Viagra was first investigated as a possible cardiac medication, too, before investigators became aware that it improved erections.

I will look further and see what I can find out.



To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (9334)5/29/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Peter V  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18691
 
ICOS pretty steady into the close, 23 million shares trade hands with 31 million float. Can you say day traders?

Can't say which way this will turn on Monday, but CEO to supposedly appear on CNBC Monday. Stock also getting news coverage as a result of the high volume. All of this may contribute to another pop (or series of them) before it tops out.

Any comments?