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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Craig McNeill who wrote (947)	5/29/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1279

I agree. Investment strategy should not be directed at buying a "less bad" stock, only trading at a P/E somewhat over its growth rate. In particular, I see no urgency whatsoever to buy the stock, with the first half of fiscal 1999 already warned as being mediocre and the second half not very solid, as you correctly observed. I would wait until the report 6 months from now to see if things look clearer or even worse (weak the whole of FY 1999), unless the price becomes ridiculously cheap and discounts a FY 1999 that is weak all year. That possibility is not discounted now. For example, what if ETEC makes $1.75 this fiscal year and $1.50 next year, before improvement starts? This is certainly possible. What price is this then worth? I can certainly see 20 times cyclical low earnings as possible, or $30. I think the market is saying that today, when we have seen none of the mediocre quarters forecast on the call. I would like to hear arguments as to why I am wrong, so I can have a complete picture. I want to buy the stock, just not now.