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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: dfloydr who wrote (1539)5/29/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: raefon  Respond to of 3247
 
Floyd,

All of your points are good ones, bottom line is we are still not getting paid....

Jeff did indicate that there are actually three major MOT programs. Two will begin shipping in June, the timing on the third is unknown but anticipated at any time.

Jeff also indicated that the programs had stopped and started during the course of the quarter. This implies the "mess" MOT may actually have on its hands. Maybe we should consider being "short" MOT.

I believe they had some inkling...but who can know for certain.



To: dfloydr who wrote (1539)5/29/1998 3:02:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3247
 
Hi D Floyd,

As it happens, TFS started and stopped shipments to Motorola a couple of times during the quarter. Although the "Street" basically isn't aware of that reality, management did express that thought to one of the parties that it held a conversation with following today's press release.

I think the questions you have asked about Motorola are salient. They clearly need to do something to enhance their stable of managers. From the standpoint of TFS, however, it is hard to understand how management could have been more forthcoming about MOT's business when it was so stop, go, stop, go. (By the way, the fact that the TFS shipments were started and stopped a couple of times means to me that MOT is close to giving a final production order to management. If that were not so, I tend to doubt that Mr. Buchanan would have opined that full year sales will be up "at least 25%." From my perspective, they are simply too close to the vest to make such a viewpoint public if they didn't have MOT's assurances that its production problems were close to resolution.)

I am sure that this entire situation will be cleared up following the conference call, which is now barely over a month away. The only constructive suggestion that I would have made to TFS regarding today's release is that perhaps it, too, should have been followed by a conference call. I have no doubt that such a call, particularly with questions available to the participants, would have cleared the entire matter up in short order.

Any "selling pressure" on the stock appears to have already lifted. In re-reading management's release, it is clear to me that the company has issued a timely road-map for the balance of the year, and though I am mildly disappointed that we lost what apparently is a month's worth of shipments to MOT, it is very clear to me that this event will have no meaningful or long term bearing on the company's valuation.

Moreover, after reading Raefon's post regarding the prospect of a financing in the latter part of the year, I am actually considerably heartened by the reality of an inevitable broader market for the shares, additional analytic coverage (hopefully with at least two big-name firms that have institutional impact), and the requisite roadshow which will clarify the company's business plans and products. This is something that the stock desperately needs, and I have no doubt that it will be a dramatic plus for existing owners.

It has been a very long wait, but the pieces are starting to "fit." Woe is the INVESTOR (as opposed to speculator) that is short of patience.

Have a good weekend.