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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: freeus who wrote (6439)5/29/1998 4:37:00 PM
From: Arnie Doolittle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
Freeus, never is a long time. The euphoria of the bull move to 34 is replaced by depression on the retracement. We think we're geniuses one moment and born losers the next. That's the emotional part of the market and one has difficulty getting used to it. In business you sign a contract and then deliver the goods. No muss, no fuss. In the stock market, you buy stock and you can never relax until you sell.

Granted, I think the current price sucks but I'm not too happy about FM's price right now either. In FM's case, it had already reached fair value and I sold it. Ditto NVAL. RII was stinking up the place and I dumped it because there were too many pieces of the puzzle outside of management's control. In NXTL's case, the fundo party hasn't begun and I'm not selling. Let's review for a moment:

1. iDEN works as advertised.
2. Customers are signing up in record numbers.
3. No single competitor is adding customers as fast as NXTL.
4. ARPU is the highest of the big players.
5. NXTL has free reign for the next 2 years or so to capture its market niche (DC for mobile work groups) before going head to head with T, FON and the regional telcos.
6. International is valued at nada.
7. NXTL's spectrum and infrastructure is worth more than NXTL's current market price.
8. All the major insiders have large stock positions and they're looking for huge returns.

All in all, the fundos are great; the technicals on the stock are smelling up the place. I think we'll see tons of buyers at 22, if it gets that low. Will it be a technical bounce or the real thing? Time will tell.

Arnie