To: Chris who wrote (9112 ) 5/29/1998 6:07:00 PM From: Robert Graham Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
The close of the DJIA completed an intraday triangular price pattern and its follow through. Note that I am not calling this a descending triangle which is different. The market "internals" were deteriorating through the day. Even the NASDAQ, IMO currently a barometer of the sentiment of the public speculator who trades, did not show any strength to the upside which did not help the market itself. Now the close of the DJIA and SPX below their 50 day MA I think is an indication of things to come next week. Also when the market opened above 9000, it immediately sold off and has not been able to challenge 9000 for the rest of the day. As a note on the triangular price pattern the DJIA made today, this is where there were higher highs but the low did not follow where the price ended up challenging the previous low. I have been finding this to be a technically deteriorating intraday pattern. What gives this pattern emphasis is if the anticipated breakout is in the direction of the current trend, which is down for this market. It was quite interesting to see the "close to" real-time TICK and TRIN when the market was at a pivital point. I thought a program sell would come into the picture after 3PM. Right at the juncture defined by the base of this descending triangle the TRIN continued increasing well beyond its 1.3 it has been holding to for a good part of the day. The TICK moved up temporarily in positive terratory and then started negative again. Right at this moment, a program sell came in which caused the TICK to dive toward -400. The market followed through a bit after the program sell and then paused and then continued down. This proves that there was an underlying negative bias to the market at that point in time, because the articifially induced pressure cased a good reaction to the market which followed through on. Once again the program trading came in at a juncture defined by an intraday pivot point. I definitely think the TICK and TRIN, if properly used, can help detect points in time that program buying and selling can occur and also can help identify when this happens. I do think this is an incomplete "system" to detect for this type of trading activity, so it still needs work. So the TICK and TRIN are two tools that will become part of this system of mine. We shall see how far I get in this little adventure of mine. Exciting stuff. Real-time streaming quotes with a time and sales history here I come! Unfortunately I may end up having to pay $150 per month for this service. Bob Graham