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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (19493)	5/29/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: J. P.	Respond to of 94695

I've observed over the last three years that the Nasdaq has corrected EXACTLY down to the 200 day moving average, and has always met bedrock support there. If this holds true for the fourth year in a row, then we are very close to the 200 DMA now, which I estimate to be around 1725 -1750. There's always been a blowoff bottom to hit it, so we have that in store soon if history is any guide. Last year the October Hong Kong induced big drop brought us down to the 200 dma, then we rallied a bit built a double bottom off it, and then built this years first half rise off that. Difference this time is that the SP 500 and Dow are still well off the 200 DMA so they have to come down to it also, which was not the case last time, as those indexes were coupled with the Nasdaq. Any way you slice it, if history is any guide, we may have to come down some more before we start back up again.