Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12375)	5/29/1998 8:07:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116894

Hi Bobby, I'm not convinced of that. And besides, how long does it take to turn an oil tanker? I read somewhere the other day about a buildup of inventory in select sectors, but the economy is growing nicely and people are spending. The primary mistake of those who have not reaped the rewards of the bull has been to focus on historical precedents rather than on the essential background "ambience" or environment in which the markets trade. I view the possibility of an upward "crash" in the POG as being remote. And if it does happen, I think the first rush will be the best selling opportunity for some time to come. At least, those with the power to move the market through their sales will see it that way. There is plenty of oil, plenty of copper, plenty of labor, plenty of industrial capacity, plenty of depressed producers, plenty marginal gold deposits. Tom

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (12375)	5/29/1998 9:06:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Respond to of 116894

Bobby, Well, let me back-step a bit here. I've always thought that the Achilles Heel of this economy is the massive US debt. A recession would mean decreased tax revenues, increased govt borrowing. Would this drive up rates and be accompanied by inflation, as it was in the 70's? I wish I knew. Gold may hold its own in a deflation, but I think it will clearly require inflation to make a significant or sustained move, just as it always has. The market will defy a sustained up-trend in the POG in the absence of inflation. In any case, I do not see recession looming. I don't know if the problems in Asia have the capacity to displace that large a part of our economy. Tom