Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (5023)	5/29/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9719

>> I suggest covering at $18. Quick profit << Tommy St. John, Mike Gallatin, Bill Gates, George Rathman and Gary Wilcox..... you don't want to bet against this crew. If there's no toxicity ass'd with Viagra which threatens "recall" and if Rathman is convincing (PDE5inh versus PDE5inh) on Monday morning, you may see a lot of air between the price and 18 for a long time. Rathman's target is two phase III trials initiated in '98, and to start a phase I with a new, orally-active "potential monster". ICAM-3 is a CD2 ligand, and CD2 is a magic molecule. They like rPAF-AH and the joint venture with Suntory is set up along the lines of Amgen-Kirin. The anti-integrin program for MS?...... a 200 patient phase II.... I'm less enthusiastic about the chances of success here, but they've been neck and neck with Athena in this area for ages, and they know about leukocyte trafficing than anyone with the possible exception of LeukoSite. If you have a molecule in hand, tested up your wazoo in phase I, that is bucking up against what is proposed as the most successful drug of all time, shouldn't your company command a decent research premium? The success of your short will be determined by the perception of toxicities associated with PDE5 inhibitors as a class and the projected market for Viagra. Glaxo gave the molecule back to ICOS a couple of years ago, before patients in the Pfizer trial started getting unexpected bennies. ICOS is in control of its destiny. Royalties are owed to Glaxo, but I can't imagine that they are significant. Changing focus, same topic.... research premiums have been discounted to such an extent that even the die-hard participants of this thread have come to Pavlov when a biotech shoots up. All that goes up suddenly need not return to the point from which it originated. The research premium assigned to ICOS has always been out of whack relative to other biotechs. I hope that we're about to see that ICOS was the rational signpost. I own some companies that are just plain old undervalued. They are markedly discounted from cash plus a rational research premium. That said, I bailed from ICOS, after modest profit, a few days ago when guys started keeling over on Viagra. So, it could be a nightmare short, and it could be a dream. Stan... no commentary on the nature of the dream. ;-) Vent off. Rick