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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (19765)	5/29/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 70976

>>With the sudden drop in the market today, will next monday turn out to be the Black Monday of 1998?<< No, those only happen in October. :-) Or when Peter Lynch gets promoted. :-) (For those who haven't read One Up On Wall Street, Lynch's Law says the market drops whenever Peter Lynch gets promoted. The Real (tm) Black Monday occurred during his first vacation in several years...) Katherine

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (19765)	5/29/1998 11:35:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I think that what is being missed here is that many investors have been buying AMAT, INTC etc; and supporting the stock price guided by the Cowen's the Lehman's and the Morgan Stanley's, and their quite ludicrous position that these stocks are essential to every portfolio given the move to the digital age - irrespective of the realities of the marketplace and their current valuation. What will happen is that these investors will start to pull out of these stocks as they see that the medium term upside is hype. I keep reading that this downturn is nothing compared to 85, 95 etc. - all I can say is YET. There are quite simply no positives for semi-eqips right now, and the INTC delay of the Merced chip will have an extremely negative effect on their cap-ex and capex in semi-equip general. I say - as I have been saying for two quarters, that AMAT is overvalued at today's price, that it will break even at best in the 4th quarter and that it will scramble to delay its own cap-ex over the next few months... and that the bottom will be reached and marked when the semi-equips start buying each other because prices have declined to the point when these co's trade at a discount to the amount of rescorces required to grow internally. If stocks are so cheap, why no merger action ? Because the Morgan's of this world know they'll be able to buy what they need cheaper later. Again I say that AMAT breaks $25 and that it could easily hit $19 (I will start purchasing for my own account at $27).... And that if AMAT gets cheap enough GE will buy it - thats what I call a macro floor,