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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3064)	5/30/1998 8:57:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

Alan Abelson takes another shot at PFE today in Barrons that includes inaccurate Rx data. Highlights below. BigKNY3 ________________________________________________________________ Speaking of Viagra, as we were tangentially a few paragraphs ago, on April 27, when the frenzy over Pfizer's impotence drug was at fever pitch and Pfizer shares were changing hands north of 118, we sounded a skeptical note, courtesy of a hedge-fund operator who loved the company and vouched for the product but thought the price of the stock was gaga. Since then, the shares have worked their way lower and closed Friday at 105. An inevitable exhaustion of speculative passion and disclosure of the death of six users of the pill (all of whom, let it be noted, were borne into the void wearing expressions of profound contentment) were among the chief depressants. A less frequently cited but nonetheless potent negative was the banning of the drug by Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. The city fathers alluded to public-health concerns in explaining their action, but the truth is, they're inveterately anti-fun (the last time they were seen smiling in public was when Saigon fell), and they may also have been slightly influenced by their reputed control of the local black market, on which Viagra fetches a 50% premium. Although down from their euphoric high of 121 3/4 , Pfizer's shares may still have a way to travel on the downside. That at least is the view of another savvy portfolio type we know who specializes in that amorphous area known as health care. We should say he also is a fan of the company and Viagra and bought long-time calls on the stock before it went ballistic (in July '97, to be precise). He hasn't sold, but he has thoroughly hedged his position. Our friend's caution is conditioned by nothing more complicated than a slowing in the impossibly torrid rate at which prescriptions were written for Viagra when it first hit the market. The total has declined from an astonishing 300,000 a week to 200,000, and the next set of figures revealing new prescriptions for the drug, he predicts, will evince a further drop of around 15%. His take on the trend is a decrease in "recreational" use (possibly reflecting a reconciliation of appetites with abilities). The decline, in any case, has left analysts confused (so, what's new?) and until they emerge into some more coherent state, he's convinced, the stock will remain under pressure. More specifically, he's looking for it to bottom out in the low 90s -- at which point he plans to unwind his hedge.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3064)	5/31/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: John Lacelle	Respond to of 9523

BIGKNY3, I believe it that there is a lot of bogus "Viagra" out there. For those of you a little nervous about the "six dead", I would not worry about it. Pfizer has come about as close to a "Fountain of Youth" as you can with a pill. Even if this drug was killing men at a greater than normal rate, I doubt you could stop it. This company has hit a home run and will continue to do so with some of the other wonder drugs they have in the pipe- line. I just wish I had bought this puppy 3 years ago. Good luck everyone, -John