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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (9838)	5/30/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 120523

To: +T.R. (3966 ) From: +Dennis R. Duke Saturday, May 30 1998 1:01PM ET Reply # of 3973 O.K., I have had enough of "unemployment is really low". That is Clinton administrative B.S. Period. There are 60,000,000 people doing office at home according to one of the major office supply companies. That is nearly 30% of the entire population of the United States. Ask yourself why? The unemployment data is only those people who are currently collecting an unemployment check. I have been unemployed for over 4 years. I collected unemployment for the allowable period which was 6 months as I recall. If that were indicative then the unemployment rate is misstated by a factor of 8. I am the President of the local chapter of Experience Unlimited, the volunteer group for helping professional get back into the work place, and a member of the First Group in the Bay Area, a group of CFO's sharing job leads. I can tell you that of the 80 people in EU Monterey, only about 15 are currently getting unemployment, or are currently in the statistics. Using that statistic the national data is understated by a factor of 5 1/3 times. In the First Group, there are about 60 qualified, good CFO's who can't find jobs in the rapidly expanding Silicon Valley. If you can not find a job there what can you imagine the rest of the country is like. The San Jose Mercury reported that there are over 50 CFO vacancies. Yet they are not hiring available people who apply. So the unemployment data on how well the economy is going is in accurate nonsense. Further, as to potential wage inflation. Again it is nonsense. We have one candidate a EU that as lost out on 3 jobs because they were able to hire a woman at as much as 50% less than this male. Now they get points for hiring a woman, but as for potential wage inflation and its effect on the economy, that is mere fantasy. There is real wage deflation going on in this economy. My wife is a Nurse Practitioner. HMO's and Hospitals are off loading work from Doctors to NP's at wages that are less than half of the Doctor's pay. And because NP's are relatively new, and to gain experience they are willing to work for less. They are even lower cost than RN's in some cases. My wife makes 31% less on an hourly basis as an NP than she did as a Labor and Delivery RN. And she sees as many patients as the Doctors. Do you think the HMO bills less for NP care? Do you think there is wage inflation when you can hire for half the wage and get the same work product accomplished? What about those 60 million office at home people? They are most likely corporate middle Americans laid off in corporate downsizing and barely making a living compared to where they used to be before down sizing effected their lives. Would they make more money if they could be on unemployment? Should they really be included in the unemployment data? Will they take jobs at substantially lower pay than they had in their last jobs, just to go back to work? And isn't that also wage deflationary? And how many of these people are now like me trying to make a living playing the market? What type of risk does that add to the economy? The above in my opinion is why the unemployment data means nothing. We have real wage deflation possibilities in this economy. In my opinion the entire market scare is because the fund managers with their respective pieces of the $4 billion per week coming into this market want the little people to be scared and run for the exits so they can buy at lower levels. One of them even said this on CNBC this last week. Sorry, but you got me started with that "unemployment" statistic stuff. Dennis

To: Jenna who wrote (9838)	5/22/1999 2:24:00 AM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

. My Internet Strategy through the next earnings cycle..AOL,INKT,NTBK (or NITE),VRSN,EBAY,YHOO, ATHM I have been in MSPG, ELNK seriously since January 1998- March 1998 and then again in June 1998, techstocks.com and not so seriously 'dabbled' in Oct-Nov 1997. Message 3269547 After these two I introduced the thread to NSOL, from which I endured a lot of 'abuse' because it was 'overvalued' at $20 a share. I maintained bullishness in NSOL throughout.. Then came Market Gems around April 1998, and with it came a whole slew of new internets which I uncovered from their contact with Market Gems: There was VRSN which I latched onto strongly know of their monopolist niche in security. By this time you probably all remember the evolution through VRIO, again which was introduced to the thread around July of 1998. By this time everyone was convinced these stocks were the 'future'.. Then came my favorite and most lucrative and enduring position of all NTBK, in January of 1998. I've held a position in that company more or less from March of 1998.. when it was still a 'teenager'... of course much stronger position in the last 3 months. The rest is history and even you newbies know. I've held them all from stints of 3 months (january 1998-March 1998, MSPG and ELNK), from September 1998, through much of the winter. VRSN the positions were for shorter intervals about 1 month or so. VRIO again for over 3 months. I had a wonderful stint with NTBK,lasting 4-8 months. When I am convinced the nets have bottomed: in around 2 weeks when I return from vacation (8-14) I will begin accumulating my favorites once again. The 20-25 other nets that I research intensely will be held only for periods of 1 week until the trend abates. Why all this? because now everyone is an internet analyst from the boy who cleans the pool to my Dentist, Aeorbics Instructor...to our friend the professional gambler 'retired' to Florida from Las Vegas just recently (hes the funniest) whos' never owned a share of stock before he turned 60, but you have to see the way Lou plays NITE, up and down for 10 points like the pro that he is. That is why I am not holding any internets. My strategy is never again to hold positions long term through thick and thin. My positions will be accumulated about 2-3 weeks before earnings season (season lasting about 1 month say) through the end of the season which is a total of no more than 7 to 8 weeks a stint. All positions to be closed the day after the last net reports. (which is how I saved myself this quarter from the correction) Because of the influx of electronic traders into the internet sector, the volatility and corrections are steep. Anyone who stays through all them is a fool and he will be soon parted from his money. Most of the stocks above will be my 'core holdings' and will also include some 10-20 day holds of stocks like INSP, EXDS, VERT, COVD, VRIO etc. What I accomplished in this sector in 1997-1999 sector can't be repeated with any buy and hold strategy. A lot of you are rushing into the nets too quickly, there will be time. You will be richly rewarded if you wait for the 'bottom' to come than sail the stock through the month of July until the very last one reports. Then sell off the the bunch, or risk a 30-50% correction.