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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (1063)	5/31/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

I would love to know the answer to that question... Obviously I don't and I don't know anyone who does... Chirodoc has said that he is waiting for a change in the party elected to invest. I personally think that it will not really matter ... at least not yet. After 6 years , I must say I have very little understanding in Japanese politics although my consolation is that there seems to be a big swath of Native Japanese who don't either. Politics means dirty business to most average Japanese and after finding these pearls in the Economist and Business Week, spending 6 years here, and attending countless work related meetings, I can safely say that no matter the party elected it will not make a difference. Business Week reported that 25 % of Diet members (the parliament) were 2nd, 3rd or 4th generation holder of those parliament seats... That coupled with the Economist's contention that Japanese politicians are really more lobbyists than politicians, wrestling favors away from bureaucrats and opening the purse strings for their constituents... Sounds like home? Not quite, politicians often switch allegiance and survive as if nothing had happened... So my take on it is this; an LDP victory will just confirmed the approach taken by the old timers in place now, mind you there are numerous factions even within the party but that is what has lead to inaction so far. Hashimoto is the least irritating choice to all those factions, no chosen for his abilities to lead but for the fact that he was cleaner (no skeletons in the closet perhaps) and acceptable to the greatest majority. I don't think he has much margin at all. A switch to one of the new parties (Mr Kan is the only likely challenger) would probably only mean that even less will get done since his power base within the major ministries is weak. I take a dim view, but I believe that nothing short of a major shock will get the government into action fast enough to avert a major deterioration of the situation as a whole in Asia. A summer election will not change much. This, I wanted to say about the political climate. My very humble opinion of course and use it to your own peril. Not to mean that nobody cares about the current state of affairs. Every single day on TV we are treated to special programs on the economy, both from a macro and micro perspective. In fact every morning the news have a short segment on start ups and other promising companies and what they are doing to survive in the present environment. Start up "kigyo" as they say , there is no word for "start up " in Japanese, at least not in the sense of a business venture. Satrudays and Sundays, we have numerous panels of experts giving each their opinion on what they think should be done etc ... I bet you that even 5 year olds know what the word recession mean... So yes, everybody is talking about it. And changes has already happened, to some extent, although the complaint from overseas investors and government alike is that time is in short supply and the boat is sinking, so the pace of change is far too slow. I can now open a bank account in US dollars at my local bank, they use the TTS rate and add no commissions to it so in fact they are cheaper than Citibank (noo phone service though) and their fund transfer fees are now in line with foreign banks, all that since April, not bad... Anyway, I will stop rambling aimlessly and finish my lunch, in closing a quote from THOMAS NELSON'S WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW >> South Korea has stated that a sharp drop in the yen to say the 150 level would place considerable pressure on the South Korean economy and currency. Taiwan is also taking the position that a weaker yen will hurt their economy prompting more financial turmoil and another round of Asian currency devaluation. Meanwhile the Japanese economy continues to flounder with little indication that the economy is turning the corner. << sg